Public Information Statement
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
745 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN NEW ENGLAND HAVE DECLARED
THE WEEK OF JULY 14TH THROUGH 18TH HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEEK. THIS
IS THE LAST IN A SERIES OF FIVE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS TO
BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN CARIBOU,
CONTAINING INFORMATION ON HURRICANES AND HURRICANE SAFETY.

THE FORECAST PROCESS: STATEMENTS, WATCHES, AND WARNINGS

THE MOST CRUCIAL PART OF THE MISSION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
(NWS) IS TO SAVE LIVES AND PROTECT PROPERTY BY ISSUING WATCHES,
WARNINGS, FORECASTS, STATEMENTS, AND OTHER PERTINENT INFORMATION.
THESE PRODUCTS ARE USED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND RESPONSE
PERSONNEL, BROADCAST METEOROLOGISTS, AND THE PUBLIC.

DURING HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AND LOCAL NWS OFFICES ACROSS THE COUNTRY SHARE IN THE RESPONSIBILITY
FOR PROVIDING CRITICAL WEATHER INFORMATION TO THE PUBLIC. TO DO SO,
THE HURRICANE CENTER AND LOCAL OFFICES CLOSELY COORDINATE ON THE
FORECAST, IN ORDER TO PROVIDE CONSISTENT INFORMATION TO THE PUBLIC.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE NORMAL PUBLIC FORECASTS MAY BE DELAYED DURING
THESE SITUATIONS.

TO MAKE ACCURATE FORECASTS, FORECASTERS RELY ON A COMBINATION OF
OBSERVATIONS, ANALYSES, STATISTICS, AND COMPUTER GENERATED GUIDANCE
IN MAKING THEIR PREDICTIONS.

STANDARD OBSERVATION EQUIPMENT SUCH AS SATELLITES, BUOYS, AND
LAND-BASED OBSERVATIONS ARE ALL IMPORTANT IN LOCATING AND TRACKING
THE STORM. IN ADDITION, RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLY THROUGH THE
STORMS TO TAKE AND COLLECT SPECIAL OBSERVATIONS AND TO DROP
SPECIALIZED INSTRUMENTS CALLED DROPSONDES INTO THE STORMS TO GATHER
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. AS THESE STORMS APPROACH LAND, RADAR
OBSERVATIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT. QUALITY, QUANTITY, AND
TIMELINESS OF REMOTE SENSING OBSERVATIONS ARE CRITICAL FOR ACCURATE
AND TIMELY FORECASTS AND WARNINGS. ONCE THE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN
COLLECTED, THE DATA ARE CHECKED FOR QUALITY, ANALYZED, AND USED AS
THE STARTING CONDITIONS FOR A VARIETY OF WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS.

THE WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS START WITH THE OBSERVED CONDITIONS AND
PERFORM MILLIONS OF CALCULATIONS TO GENERATE PREDICTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE TRACK AND INTENSITY AND OF THE GENERAL CONDITIONS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SURROUNDING THE STORM. BOTH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AND LOCAL NWS OFFICES EVALUATE THESE COMPUTER PREDICTIONS,
COORDINATE AND COLLABORATE, AND DECIDE ON A CONSISTENT FORECAST TO
BE RELEASED TO THE MEDIA AND THE PUBLIC. ONCE THE COORDINATION IS
COMPLETE, BOTH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND THE LOCAL NWS
OFFICES ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR ISSUING A VARIETY OF FORECAST, WATCH,
AND WARNING PRODUCTS TO THE PUBLIC.

LIKE ALL WEATHER-RELATED THREATS, THE NWS RELIES ON A WATCH AND
WARNING PROGRAM TO ALERT THE PUBLIC TO THE POTENTIAL DANGERS FROM
TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES.

  * A TROPICAL STORM WATCH/HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL
    STORM/HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WITHIN
    48 HOURS. IF YOU HAVEN`T DONE SO PRIOR TO THE ISSUANCE OF THE
    WATCH, IT`S A GOOD TIME TO BEGIN PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL
    STORM, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE ACTIONS THAT REQUIRE EXTRA TIME.

  * A TROPICAL STORM WARNING/HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN
    TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
    COAST WITHIN 36 HOURS. ONCE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED, YOU
    SHOULD COMPLETE ANY PREPARATORY ACTIONS AND GET TO A SAFE
    LOCATION.

ONCE THE STORM ARRIVES, STAY IN YOUR SAFE LOCATION UNTIL THE STORM
HAS COMPLETELY PASSED. DON`T BE FOOLED BY THE EYE OF THE STORM,
WHICH CAN MISLEAD PEOPLE INTO THINKING THAT THE STORM IS OVER. WINDS
AND RAIN WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EYE PASSES
OVERHEAD.

WHILE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ISSUES HURRICANE AND TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE COAST, THE LOCAL NWS OFFICE IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR ISSUING NUMEROUS OTHER TYPES OF WATCHES, WARNINGS,
AND ADVISORIES FOR OTHER HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH OR PRECEDING THE
STORM, BOTH ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND. THESE INCLUDE:

            COASTAL FLOOD
            INLAND TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE
            FLOOD
            FLASH FLOOD
            SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
            TORNADO

WHILE ISSUED SEPARATELY, THESE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE GENERALLY
SUMMARIZED BY EACH LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS. IN ADDITION, EACH LOCAL OFFICE ISSUES A
VARIETY OF FORECASTS AND INFORMATION STATEMENTS DURING HURRICANES OR
TROPICAL STORMS.

IN ADDITION TO TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS, THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER ISSUE
NUMEROUS OTHER PRODUCTS THAT CAN BE VERY USEFUL IN TRACKING AND
ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS FROM TROPICAL SYSTEMS. THESE INCLUDE:

  * TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS (ISSUED 4 TIMES DAILY FROM JUNE 1ST TO
    NOV 30)
  * PUBLIC ADVISORIES (ISSUED EVERY 6 HOURS AS NEEDED)
  * INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORIES (ISSUED EVERY 2 TO 3 HOURS AS
    NEEDED)
  * FORECAST/ADVISORIES (ISSUED EVERY 6 HOURS AS NEEDED)
  * FORECAST DISCUSSIONS (ISSUED EVERY 6 HOURS AS NEEDED)
  * WIND SPEED PROBABILITY FORECASTS (ISSUED EVERY 6 HOURS AS NEEDED)

QUESTION OF THE DAY: DURING WHICH MONTH ARE TROPICAL STORMS MOST
LIKELY TO DEVELOP?

WHILE THE FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL STORMS INCREASES IN JULY, THE MOST
ACTIVE PART OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON RUNS BETWEEN AUGUST 1
AND OCTOBER 31. ACCORDING TO THE HISTORICAL RECORD FROM 1886 TO
1997, THE PEAK MONTH FOR TROPICAL STORM ACTIVITY IS SEPTEMBER. BELOW
IS THE PERCENTAGE OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN EACH MONTH.

            MONTH           PERCENTAGE OF STORMS
            MAY                       1%
            JUNE                      6%
            JULY                      8%
            AUGUST                   24%
            SEPTEMBER                34%
            OCTOBER                  21%
            NOVEMBER                  5%
            DECEMBER                  1%

FACT FOR THE DAY: IN 2006, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BEGAN
ISSUING PUBLIC FORECASTS OF WIND PROBABILITIES FOR VARIOUS
LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST. THESE NUMBERS ARE GENERATED
STATISTICALLY, AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY, THE NUMBERS MAY SEEM RATHER LOW, ESPECIALLY DAYS
BEFORE LANDFALL. DON`T BE FOOLED BY THE LOW PROBABILITIES; EVEN
THOUGH YOUR PROBABILITY IS LOW, YOU MAY BE IN THE AREA MOST LIKELY
TO BE HIT BY THE STORM.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT HURRICANES AND HURRICANE SAFETY,
VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER`S WEB SITE AT (ALL LOWER-CASE)

HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

$$

CB







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