000
FZPN03 KNHC 170310
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC FRI MAY 17 2013

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC FRI MAY 17.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT MAY 18.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SUN MAY 19.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 9.8N 110.8W 1006 MB AT 0300 UTC MAY
17 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM N
SEMICIRCLE...30 NM SE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO
17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT
300 NM SW QUADRANT OF ALVIN WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT
IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 11.0N 113.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT
180 NM SE QUADRANT OF ALVIN WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 108W AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN PRIMARILY SW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN NEAR 11.7N 114.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN NEAR 12.1N 115.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 210 NM NE
QUADRANT...150 NM SE QUADRANT...0 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW
QUADRANT OF ALVIN WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE
FROM 08N TO 18N BETWEEN 110W AND 121W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. S OF 03N BETWEEN 111W AND
120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ALVIN NEAR 12.5N
119.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ALVIN NEAR 12.3N
121.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ALVIN NEAR 12.0N
123.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15 KT GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.06 HOUR FORECAST FROM 16N TO 19N W OF 136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 19N W OF 136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0300 UTC FRI MAY 17...
.TROPICAL STORM ALVIN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240
NM E QUADRANT AND SW SEMICIRCLE OF ALVIN.

.LOW PRES NEAR 06N81W 1009 MB...SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM
SW QUADRANT OF LOW.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 06N77W TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N81W 1009 MB
TO 09N87W TO 07N96W TO 09N106W THEN RESUMES FROM 09N113W TO
06N132W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 06N132W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 113W AND
117W...FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 116W AND 122W...AND WITHIN 180 NM
N OF A LINE FROM 05N127W TO 08N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 118W AND 125W.

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.