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000
FXUS64 KHUN 171737 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1237 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1028 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIPPLING ACROSS MIDDLE TN/EXTREME NORTHEAST AL, WHICH HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED-NUMEROUS STORMS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
HSV. THERE ARE CLEARLY SOME BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AT WORK AS WELL,
GIVEN THE TRAINING ECHOES NOTED OVER EXTREME NORTHERN MOORE AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS. ROUND 2 OF STORMS IS NOTED
OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS, ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. A THIRD, MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN OK,
AND WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT.

IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN MS
WILL COMPLETELY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO AL. THE FORCING IS
ROBUST ENOUGH TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHER POPS WEST OF I-65,
PARTICULARLY SINCE THAT AREA IS LIKELY WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE GIVEN
CURRENT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. WE WILL MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS BASED
UPON CURRENT TRENDS, BUT THE ORIENTATION WILL REMAIN THE SAME. WE
WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS AND ZFP IN
LIGHT OF HOW MUCH RAIN HAS FALLEN IN SOME AREAS, HOW MOIST THE
ENVIRONMENT IS (BLENDED TPW IMAGERY INDICATES ABOUT 1.9 INCHES PW, OR
ALMOST 150% OF NORMAL), AND HOW QUICKLY MINOR FLOODING DEVELOPED IN
LYNCHBURG. THE EXISTING HWO MENTIONS THIS POSSIBILITY, AND WE WILL
CERTAINLY CONTINUE MONITORING FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NUDGED DOWN JUST A DEGREE OR SO, ANTICIPATING
THAT WESTERN AREAS ARE NEAR THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS, AND THAT EASTERN
AREAS WILL WARM UP AS THEY DAY GOES ON BEFORE MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...A BAND OF SCATTERED TSRA WILL IMPACT BOTH KMSL AND
KHSV THROUGH 19-20Z THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS COULD CRASH HARD BRIEFLY
WITH THE STORMS, BUT NOT FOR VERY LONG. TSRA WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT IMPACTS WILL NOT BE AS CERTAIN,
SO WILL STICK WITH VCTS AFTER 20Z. AFTER A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE
THIS EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE OVERNIGHT,
STARTING AS EARLY AS 08Z AT KMSL AND 11Z AT KHSV. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN BUT CONFIDENCE IN SOME SORT OF IMPACT IS HIGH, SO HAVE MADE
A PREVAILING MVFR TSRA GROUP WITH THAT TIMING AS A BEST GUESS FOR
NOW.

BCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.