000
FXUS64 KHUN 180159 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
859 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
TO ADDRESS CONVECTIVE TRENDS. WE MAY LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT IN NERN AL
AFTER THE CURRENT RAIN AREA THERE ENDS OR MOVES NE.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION HAVE RECEDED IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF
HEATING, AND NO LIGHTNING IS BEING DETECTED IN OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.
RESIDUAL ANVIL PRECIP WILL PERSIST, BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE A
CONTINUED TO DECLINE IN COVERAGE. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL SEEM JUSTIFIED IN NWRN
AL INTO SRN TN.

JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WEST, CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED NEAR A
DISTINCT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR MEMPHIS. JUST TO THE
EAST OF THIS CENTER, CLUSTERS OF +RA PRODUCING STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM FAR NRN MS INTO SWRN TN. INITIALLY, MUCH OF THIS WILL REMAIN
JUST NW OF THE NW TIP OF AL. WITH TIME HOWEVER, I EXPECT CONVECTION
TO BUILD SWWD AS THE EARLIER NAM SUGGESTS, AND PIVOT NEWD INTO NWRN
AL AND SRN MIDDLE TN. THIS IS MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z, AND WE`LL SEE
WHAT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS DEPICT IN A SHORT WHILE. 850 MB ANALYSIS AND
00Z SFC GEOSTROPHIC FLOW INDICATE A LLJ OF 20-25KT ACROSS CENTRAL AR
INTO NRN AL. THIS IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 30-35KT OVERNIGHT, AND
SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL GIVEN THE GREATER DEEP
LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS TO OUR S AND THE COLUMN IS QUITE MOIST.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL INCREASE IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPETITIVE STORMS, AND THIS THREAT APPEARS
GREATEST IN MIDDLE INTO SWRN TN AND POSSIBLY FAR NWRN AL OVERNIGHT.
THIS AXIS MAY SHIFT SEWD INTO THE REST OF THE AREA EARLY TUE MORNING.

KULA
&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 542 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
FOR 00Z TAFS... CLUSTER OF SHRA AND TSRA, SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS, FQT
LIGHTNING AND +RA WILL OCCUR IN THE KHSV VCNTY OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. BRIEF IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL. NEAR TERM
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND TSRA AT KMSL IS A BIT LESS CERTAIN THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT, A COMPLEX OF TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN MS AND
WRN TN AND PUSH EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
BEST ESTIMATE OF TIMING OF ARRIVAL WILL BE 03-06Z AT KMSL AND 05-08Z
AT KHSV. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDS IN +RA ARE QUITE PSBL AGAIN, AND SOME
IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE SHRA AND TSRA.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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