Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FGUS72 KILM 051221
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NCC017-019-047-129-141-155-SCC031-033-041-043-051-067-069-089-
191230-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
821 AM EDT FRI APR 5 2013

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

RAINFALL SO FAR THIS YEAR HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AMOUNTING
TO APPROXIMATELY 80 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...APPROXIMATELY HALF OF THE AREA
IS IN THE ABNORMALLY DRY CLASSIFICATION WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE
DROUGHT WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 IN SOUTH CAROLINA.  APPROXIMATELY HALF
OF THE AREA IS NOT IN A DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION...SOUTH OF A WILMINGTON
TO CONWAY TO FLORENCE LINE.  THE TABLE BELOW SUMMARIZES PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AT AREA OBSERVATION SITES THROUGH YESTERDAY...APRIL 4TH...FOR
VARIOUS TIME SCALES.

WILMINGTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      3.37      3.95     -0.58        85%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      8.58      7.87      0.71       109%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)     10.48     11.54     -1.06        91%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     23.09     21.78      1.31       106%
                ONE YEAR      53.66     57.71     -4.05        93%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     61.10     68.57     -7.47        89%

LUMBERTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      3.00      3.23     -0.23        93%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      7.10      6.45      0.65       110%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      8.28      9.32     -1.04        89%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     15.08     17.21     -2.13        88%
                ONE YEAR      44.87     43.62      1.25       103%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     53.03     52.43      0.60       101%

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      4.23      3.81      0.42       111%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      8.74      7.50      1.24       117%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      9.33     11.03     -1.70        85%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     16.82     21.01     -4.19        80%
                ONE YEAR      42.08     52.12    -10.04        81%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     48.65     62.48    -13.83        78%

FLORENCE SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      3.56      3.15      0.41       113%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      8.59      6.31      2.28       136%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      9.91      9.43      0.48       105%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     17.01     17.91     -0.90        95%
                ONE YEAR      42.79     43.00     -0.21       100%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     51.61     51.81     -0.20       100%

SEVEN DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW VALUES ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT WEEK AS RUNOFF FROM RAIN YESTERDAY FILTERS INTO THE RIVERS.
UPSTREAM RESERVOIRS ARE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.  OTHERWISE...THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS.  THE EIGHT TO FOURTEEN DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL.  THE OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF APRIL CALLS FOR A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL WHILE THE OUTLOOK FOR
APRIL THROUGH JUNE CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL...NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.

IN CONSIDERATION OF THE ABOVE FACTORS...THIS OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF RIVER FLOODING THROUGH THE END
OF SPRING.

THIS IS THE LAST WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NWS OFFICE IN WILMINGTON FOR THIS SEASON.  OUTLOOKS WILL RESUME IN
JANUARY 2014.

$$

RAN