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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181006
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
606 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEAR DAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS...MAINLY TO
DELAY PCPN AS SHWRS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DVLP. HOWEVER...SCT SHWRS
AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLD TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DVLP AS THE
MRNG PROGRESSES.

BY AFTN...BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD
WHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
TWD I 70. WITH AFTN WARMTH...DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...INSTABILITY
SHOULD INCRS SUFFICIENTLY TO SPPRT LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTH OF
PIT...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPPRT MARGINALLY SVR STORMS GIVEN
MODEST DEEP LYR SHEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO PERSIST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NXT WEEK AS BROAD
RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO BLD OVR THE SRN AND ERN CONUS.  HAVE
USED THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE PD GIVEN CONSISTENT
HT PROGS AS DEPICTED BY GFS AND ECMWF MDLS OVR THE PAST CPL OF DAYS.

CHC/NR CLIMO POPS WERE ALSO INCLUDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY THAT WL ACCOMPANY THE WARMTH AND MSTR...WITH LIMITATIONS
IMPOSED BY MID LVL CAPPING AND DEPENDENCY ON SHRTWV SPPRT ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR IS ANTICIPATED THIS MRNG...BUT SCT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO
DVLP...AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THIS AFTN AS A CDFNT SAGS
ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION. THE BTR CHC FOR TERMINAL EFFECTS WL
BE FOR PORTS S OF PIT AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY SPPRT MORE
WIDESPREAD SHWR AND TSTM DVLPMNT IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESS.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRNS ARE PSBL S OF PIT TNGT AS THE CDFNT EXITS...BUT BLDG HIGH
PRES IS EXPD TO PRODUCE GENL VFR FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$