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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 141234
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
834 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SOME SUNSHINE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY WILL TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 30`S/LOW 40`S QUICKLY THIS
MORNING SO FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. MADE SOME
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED OFF OF
THE MOST RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE BASED OFF OF CURRENT TRENDS. MOISTURE
RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE PLAINS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY A
SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY SO POPS WERE KEPT AT LOW. WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AND CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS WILL ACT ON COMPARABLY MODEST INSTBY ALONG THIS CDFNT
AND WILL GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN-EVE. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS AGREE IN A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH
AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE AND MOVES IT EASTWARD FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INHERENT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW...DECREASING CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...OPTED TO
KEEP NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH
IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH BOTH HPC/MEX GUIDANCE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS GRADUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WIND AND MID-CLOUD DECK OVERSPREADS THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS COMING JUST AFTER TAF FORECAST
PERIOD INTO THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SCT SHWRS/TSTMS
WL BRING PSBL RESTRNS WED NT INTO THU. VFR EXP FRI WITH INCRG
SHWR/TSTM CHCS FOR SAT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$