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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 141437
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1037 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY WILL TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING RIDGE IN
THE PLAINS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND
POSSIBLY A SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY SO POPS WERE KEPT AT LOW. WITH STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AND CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ABOUT
15 TO EVEN 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS WILL ACT ON COMPARABLY MODEST INSTBY ALONG THIS CDFNT
AND WILL GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN-EVE. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS AGREE IN A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH
AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE AND MOVES IT EASTWARD FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INHERENT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW...DECREASING CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...OPTED TO
KEEP NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH
IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH BOTH HPC/MEX GUIDANCE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS GRADUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WIND AND MID-CLOUD DECK OVERSPREADS THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS COMING JUST AFTER TAF FORECAST
PERIOD INTO THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SCT SHWRS/TSTMS
WL BRING PSBL RESTRNS WED NT INTO THU. VFR EXP FRI WITH INCRG
SHWR/TSTM CHCS FOR SAT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$