000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240514
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
114 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHWRS CONT TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF THE EVE CDFNT
AND PCPN FORECAST HAS BEEN REDUCED TO SCT COVERAGE INTO...AND
THROUGH THE MRNG AS COLDER AIR FLOWS OVR THE REGION UNDR A
RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION LLVL. THAT PTN WL WL MAINTAIN SOME
STRATOCU TDA...BUT OVRALL DRYING WL HERALD REDUCED CLD COVER AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

INTIAL TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING OBS-TWEAKED LAMP GUIDANCE WHILE
TNGTS COLD READINGS WERE A RESULT OF SREF MEANS. FOR NOW...HAVE
FORECASTED LOW TO MID 30S...BUT WITHOUT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
GIVEN A LACK OF DURATION OF SUB 32 READINGS...AND EXPECTATIONS OF
SUFFICIENT WIND TO PRECLUDE HEAVY FROST FORMATIONS OUTSIDE OF
SHELTERED AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN COLD TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT READINGS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVERAGES WITH FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN ON SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DRY WEA UNTIL A WARM FRONT
INCREASES PCPN CHCS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INITIALLY COLD TEMPS
WL MODERATE TO...AND THEN ABOVE SEASONAL LVLS AS SLY FLOW RESUMES
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY MRNG IFR AND MVFR ST AND STRATOCU CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH DRY ADVCTN GRADUALLY INCRSG T/DP
SPREADS DESPITE COLD FLOW. WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 22 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE SHALLOW MIXING REGIME. THAT POTENTIAL WL CEASE WITH
DECOUPLING THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY NXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15