000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191344
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
944 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THROUGH THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...THE MENTION OF A SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE NEARLY
EVERY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH TWEAKS TO POP AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS. BASED ON HRRR...MOST OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACR WV AND OH TODAY WHERE THE INTERSECTION OF FORCING AND MOISTURE
IS THE GREATEST. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO LOW PCPN PROBABILITIES CONTINUE THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

H5 WAVE EMBEDDED IN EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE TO SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY. HI RES WINDOW AND HRRR BOTH ADVERTISING WEAK
FIELDS FOR PRECIP AND CONVECTIVE FOCUS. SHOULD BE WIDELY ACTIVITY WITH
LITTLE ORGANIZATION. SINCE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA...WENT WITH CHANCE
POPS WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST HALF OF CWA FOR TODAY. GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE...SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE FORCING
WESTERN HALF. SREF CALIBRATED THUNDER FIELD SUGGESTING A LITTLE
HIGHER PROBABILITY TODAY BUT STILL LIMITED DYNAMICS. HOWEVER
CONTINUED WITH THUNDER CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. CLOUDS
ERODING THIS MORNING WITH EXCEPTION OF SC DECK MOUNTAINS AND
EAST. WITH PROBABLE CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON ...WENT WITH PARTLY
SUNNY BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY GARRETT...PRESTON...AND TUCKER. EXPECT
ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE SCATTERED. HOWEVER...FLOW WEAK ALOFT DUE TO OPENED
WAVE AND AREAS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST UP
TO 1.6 INCHES. AS A RESULT, ANY SLOW MOVING CELL COULD PRODUCE
CLOSE TO AN INCH IN VERY LOCALIZED AREAS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN UPPER LEVEL H5 WAVE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THIS ALLOWS H5 RIDGE TO ACTUALLY BUILD WITH RISING
HEIGHTS. WENT OPTIMISTIC AND DROPPED PRECIP CHANCES TO SLIGHT OR
BELOW (CONTINUED DIURNAL TREND AS WELL).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
H5 RIDGE PUSHES EAST WITH VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES. SHOULD
PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM. BEST
CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME ON THURSDAY WITH APPROACH OF
MIDWEST SYSTEM. SYSTEM SHOULD BE FINALLY CLEARING OUR REGION BY
LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR STRATUS AT DUJ IS THE LOCATION OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN. EXPECT
IT TO LIFT BY MID MRNG...WHILE FKL SHOULD STAY MVFR OR BETTER
GIVEN SUNSHINE HAS SLOWED WESTWARD PROGRESSION. VFR WEATHER IS
PREDICTED THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. ISOLD-SCT STORMS ARE FCST THIS
AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION. HIGHEST PROB OF
SEEING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO WX THIS AFTN WOULD BE ZZV AND MGW...BUT
EVEN THERE ITS ONLY 30 PERCENT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TONIGHT...ESP AT THE TAIL END. DEPENDING
ON WHERE IT RAINS...LOCATIONS COULD SEE IFR FOG DEVELOP MUCH LIKE
THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...CONTINUED MSTR ADVECTION FROM THE SSE
WILL RETURN IFR STRATUS TO DUJ/FKL AND POSSIBLY OTHER AIRPORTS AS
WELL.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNALLY SPPRTED
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98/RJK
SHORT TERM...RJK
AVIATION...98