000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160328 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1128 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND THEN BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SENDING OUT AN UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AS LINE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITH A SHORTWAVE WHICH IS MOVING
EASTWARD JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ATMOSPHERE IS
STABILIZING...AND ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING AS IT HEADS EASTWARD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A CDFNT CONTS TO DROP S ACRS WRN PA/ERN OH. ISOLD SHWRS
DVLPD IN A WK CONVERGENCE ZONE S OF PIT AS ANOTHER WK SHRTWV MOVES
IN. WL KEEP THESE SHWRS IN THE FCST OVRNGT. EVE RAOB INSTAB CHART
AND MESO DATA SHOWS INSTAB DCRG...SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF TSTMS
AS WELL. THE FNT SHOULD SET UP ACRS SRN OH INTO WV THU...AND KEPT
LOW CHC POPS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS FOR AREAS INVOF THE FNT WELL S OF
PIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL GET A BIT OF A PUSH SOUTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY AIR ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MODELS AGAIN HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING
AND MOVEMENT BACK NORTHWARD OF THE FRONT ACROSS REGION. DID NOT
MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO CHANCE POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CERTAINTY WITH PLACEMENT OF FRONT. TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND
OF MODEL MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH BY THE END
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL
PATTERN BUT DIFFER IN LOCATION OF BOUNDARY ON THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PD AS A CDFNT SLIDES ACRS THE UPR
OH REGION AND STALLS OVR WV. EXCEPTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT ZZV AND
MGW AS SHWR CHCS WL PLAGUE THOSE PORTS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE
STALLED FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$