000
FXUS61 KPBZ 151616
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES SUNNY. SOME HIGH-BASED FLAT CU FORMING. CIRRIUS WILL SPREAD
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LATE TONIGHT AND EXTEND INTO SUNDAY. WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...COULD SEE CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORM. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT SEE MUCH THAT SUGGESTS
THIS WOULD BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...HAVE ACCORDINGLY
DROPPED POPS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. MONDAY
REMAINS A BIT OF A MUDDLED PICTURE. A POORLY DEFINED FRONT SHOULD BE
NORTH OF THE REGION...WHILE SUNDAY/S FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THE 00Z NAM/GFS BOTH SUGGEST CONDITIONS MAY BE
COMPLETELY DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE NOT CHANGED THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. BY MONDAY NIGHT HAVE THROWN OUT THE GFS SOLUTION WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BRINGING A WINTER-LOOKING STORM BARRELING
THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE STUCK CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH
GENERALLY KEEPS ALL POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH AS FRONT
FINALLY SHIFTS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDLS DIFFER IN DEPICTIONS OF SITUATION FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE
EARLY WEEK FRONT...SO FORECAST WAS BASED ON NAEFS MEANS WHICH
FEATURED A LOW AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROF GRADUALLY FILLING NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPS WERE THUS FORECAST A FEW DEGREES UNDR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES UNTIL THAT TIME FRAME. MINIMAL CONFIDENCE POPS WERE
PROGGED AOB CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CIRRIUS OVERSPREADS THE
AREA LATER TODAY...EXPECT ONLY HIGH-BASED FLAT CU. ARRIVAL OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. MORE CERTAINTY IN PRECIP
EXISTS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SUNDAY
FOR ALL TAF SITES. NON- VFR IN THE TS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NON VFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$