000
FXUS61 KPBZ 131744
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
144 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TONIGHT AND BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH A FROST OR FREEZE. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PRESTON/TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTIES STILL AVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST THAT DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS
MAY EVEN KEEP MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. MAINTAINED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT HELPING TO CLEAR OUT SKIES AND PROVIDE FOR
ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. UPDATED HEADLINES
FOR A FREEZE WARNING FROM COLUMBIANA COUNTY AND WV PANHANDLE
EASTWARD. FROST ADVISORY FOR REST OF EASTERN OHIO AS INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS BEFORE DAWN SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALL THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST WITH WARM ADVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS
REGION WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH GFS HINTING AT A STRONGER
PUSH BEING GIVEN TO THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN RETUNING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS WITH TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD. DIURNAL CUMULUS AND SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ039-040-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ041.
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023.

&&

$$