000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250456
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1256 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE
FOR THE POST MIDNGT UPDATE OTHER THAN TO MASSAGE HOURLY TRENDS.

SFC WIND HAS WEAKENED QUICKLY AS THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRES HAS
BUILD ACRS CNTRL AND ERN OHIO...A BIT E OF LAST NGTS MDL-PROGS.
SBSDNC AND DRY ADVCTN HAS THUS ERODED STRATOCU E OF A LINE FM
CLARION TO MORGANTOWN AS OF MIDNGT. RESULTING TEMPS ALREADY ARE IN
THE 30S FOR THE MOST PART...AND COLD ADVCTN HAS PLUNGED OAKLAND MD
TO 32 F DESPITE BEING OVRCAST.

AS UPR/MID LVL TROF AXIS HAS DUG TWD THE COAST...COLD NW FLOW OVR
THE UPR OH REGION...WITH HIGH PRES ON THE SFC...WL MAINTAIN SUB-
AVERAGE TEMPS TDA...WHICH WERE FORECAST 10 TO 15 UNDR USING A
BLEND OF ALREADY-CLOSE GUIDANCE.

EXPECT SOME HIGH-BASED STRATOCU TO FORM THIS AFTN AS PROGGED
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE EXCEEDED...BUT ONLY SCT COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE FORECAST TEMP/DP SPREADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL CONT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPS
WERE KEPT 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES SUNDAY...BUT MODERATED
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AS WARM ADVCTN RESUMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MDLS DIFFER IN DEPICTIONS OF A RESUMPTION OF A WARM ADVCTN REGIME
FOR MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY WITH NAM BEING THE MORE AGRESSIVE IN
TERMS OF PCPN POTENTIAL. AS CHC POPS WERE ALREADY INCLUDED WITH
THE CROSSING OF THE WARM FRONT...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST DESPITE
GFS AND ECMWF DRY SOLNS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING BASED ON
THESE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS PER EXPECTATIONS OF WARM SECTOR
DOMINATION UNDR AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE.

TEMP RECOVERY WL BE DRAMATIC...WITH READINGS CONSERVATIVELY PROGGED
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR STRATOCU...GENLY E OF I 79...WL GRDLY DCRS IN COVG OVRNGT.
MCLR SKIES AND NW WNDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT EXPD FOR SAT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPD WITH HIGH PRES IN CTRL THRU MON. SHWR/TSTM CHCS
RETURN WITH A WRMFNT MON NGT INTO WED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ020-021-029-
     031-073-075.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021-022.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$