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000
FXUS61 KRLX 181854
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
254 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LVL SYS PULLS E THIS AFTN AND WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS
FOR SE OH...NE KY...AND W WV. WILL WATCH FOR SFC FRONT TO SAG SE
INTO AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE...ALONG WITH ANOTHER S/W TROF
MOVING IN FROM SW. WITH SOME RECOVERY THIS AFTN ALONG AN W OF OH
RVR...COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AS HINTED AT BY SOME OF THE HI RES
NEAR TERM MDLS. NOT SURE HOW STRONG IT WOULD BE GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. HAVE SOME POPS WITH THIS AS IT WORKS THRU.

AS THIS PULLS E...EXPECT SOME STRATUS FOR FORM WITH LLVL FLOW
TURNING MORE NE. THIS MAY MITIGATE VERY DENSE FG...ESPECIALLY E OF
OH RVR. HOWEVER...STILL HAVE SOME FG IN THERE.

STRATUS/FG WILL BREAK UP BY 15Z...INTO A CU FIELD. HAVE SOME CHC
POPS IN MTNS FOR SOME AFTN POP UPS AS FLOW TURNS ARND TO SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIGS SOUTH FROM OH AND PA INTO WV TUESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
ENHANCED BY A H5 SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS PER RECENT MODELS OUTPUT. DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS TO PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AD THURSDAY.

HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHC POPS IN MTNS THOUGH FOR
POTENTIAL DIURNAL DRIVE SHRA/TSRA AS WEAK SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LVL SYS PULLS E OF AREA BY 20Z...TAKING BULK OF RAINS WITH IT.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THIS DOES SO WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS
FOR REMAINDER OF AFTN MAINLY OVER SE OH/NE KY/W WV. THINK BKW WILL
HOLD ONTO MUCH OF THE IFR STRATUS...PERHAPS TRYING TO IMPROVE INTO
MVFR.

WILL TURN ATTENTION TO APPROACHING SFC FRONT FROM NW AND ANOTHER
S/W TROF. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME BKN SHRA WITH THIS AS IT
WORKS THRU LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. HAVE SOME VCSH IN W TAF SITES
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AS WELL BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN ATTM.

FG FCST TRICKY OVERNIGHT AS SOME STRATUS IS EXPECTED DEVELOP POST
FRONTAL AS FLOW TURNS TO NE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WV/SW VA. WILL PLAY
A COMBO FOR NOW WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY FOR MOST OF TAF SITES GIVEN
RAINS TDY. DID TAKE MTN SITES DOWN INTO LIFR CIGS/VSBY. COULD SEE
SOME BREAKS GET INTO KPKB LATE TO ALLOW LIFR FG TO FORM.

FG/STRATUS LIFTS BY 15Z...PERHAPS BRIEFLY INTO MVFR CU...BEFORE
LIFTING INTO 4 TO 5 THSD BASES IN AFTN. A FEW MTN SHRA POSSIBLE IN
AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS DISTANCE.



CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: STRATUS MAY NOT MATERIALIZE AS MUCH WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LIFR FG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/JR
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...30