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000
FXUS65 KSLC 141114
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
514 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN UTAH THIS
MORNING AND WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER AND COLDER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN
THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A WARM AND STABLE ZONAL
FLOW...WELL SOUTH OF THE TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL PUSH
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH THE MORNING.
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND THE WARM
AIRMASS HAS LED TO A VERY WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BE VERY WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH...AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
EVEN WEAKER WITH THE COLD AIR PUSH FOR TODAY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO MONDAY...AND NORTHERN
CITIES WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS DROP LESS THAN 10 DEGREES OFF
YESTERDAYS RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS.

A SMALL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO PUSH
ACROSS NEVADA TODAY...THEN INTO UTAH THIS EVENING. THIS MAY SERVE
TO ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY AFTER 21Z. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
THE 00Z TO 06Z PERIOD WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT...BUT GUSTY WINDS DUE TO VIRGA MAY BE THE BIGGER
THREAT GIVEN THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE
NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOW BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY. THIS
MEANS SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR THURSDAY...AND STILL VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST
OF UTAH. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER AND WETTER...SO HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS AND RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE UPSHOT IS A COOL
AND WET WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE NOTABLE WARMTH OF THE
PAST WEEK.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO HAVE MAJOR DISCREPANCIES BEGINNING
SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS BUILDING A WARM RIDGE OVER THE REGION...AND
THE EC BRINGING IN AN EVEN COLDER REINFORCING WAVE. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST TILTED TOWARD THIS COLDER AND WETTER EC SOLUTION FOR THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING THEN SWITCH TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN
13-15Z THIS MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT FINALLY REACHES THE AIRFIELD.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ANY CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 7000 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
UTAH TODAY...BUT EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY.
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SLOWLY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

STRONGER WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN UTAH. DEPENDING ON FUEL STATUS...CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
UTAH. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)