000
FXUS65 KSLC 111602
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1002 AM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT NORTHERN
UTAH BY THIS AFTERNOON. A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUES THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL
CROSS NORTHERN UTAH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST UTAH IS
QUICKLY MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE SYSTEM. IT WAS PRODUCING SOME VIRGA EARLIER BUT THIS SEEMS
TO HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED. WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND HIGH BASED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EVEN
WITH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO NORTHERN UTAH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
TROUGH. MAXES FOR NORTHERN UTAH WILL BE ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT THIS IS STILL IN EXCESS OF 10F ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH WILL ALSO TEND TO RUN ABOUT 10F
ABOVE CLIMO...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO REBOUND QUICKLY AS A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW REDEVELOPS
TOMORROW...RESULTING IN MAXES AROUND 5F ABOVE VALUES THAT WILL BE
OBSERVED TODAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO REDEVELOP...AND WILL RESULT
IN SEVERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY.

A PACIFIC TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD AGAIN REDEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS SHIFT WILL OCCUR LATER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW RH AND GUSTY
WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 497 FROM NOON WEDNESDAY UNTIL 10 PM
THURSDAY.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS VERY WARM AND DRY WITH
PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS. OVERNIGHT MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE
FAIR TO POOR AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY
WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...TAKING
THE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS EAST WITH IT TOWARD THE COLORADO BORDER.
IT WILL REMAIN VERY DRY (4-12% VALLEY RH). THE ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT
WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOL OFF TODAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL UTAH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH THE
MAIN THREATS BEING LIGHTNING AND GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP TOMORROW AS ANOTHER STORM DROPS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE WHERE
FUELS ARE CRITICAL. IT WILL TREND WARMER AND REMAIN DRY TOMORROW
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION.

THE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH CONTINUES THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
COOL FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST UTAH LATE IN THE DAY...AND
SETTLES INTO CENTRAL UTAH THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER
ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH...CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE STATE WILL BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH...ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY WITH A
WARMING TREND AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ497.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI

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VISIT...
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