Preliminary Forecasts
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FXUS02 KWNH 160404
PREEPD

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1203 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VALID 12Z FRI SEP 19 2014 - 12Z TUE SEP 23 2014


THE ONGOING DIVERGENCE AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AT THE MEDIUM
RANGE--PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA--REMAINS ENOUGH OF A
CONCERN TO PRECLUDE THE DIRECT INCORPORATION OF ANY ONE OF THE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS INTO THE MANUAL BLEND. THE ECENS MEAN HAS
PERSISTENCE ON ITS SIDE WITH REGARD TO THE RELOADING OF THE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE IN THE PERIOD, SO PREFERRED IT AS A
SYNOPTIC GUIDE OVER THE OTHER MODELING CENTER ENSEMBLE MEANS.

THE THREAT OF TROPICAL DOWNPOURS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHOULD
PEAK DAY 3--LATE IN THE SHORT RANGE--WITH THE JUICY MOISTURE PLUME
BEING SHUNTED INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THEREAFTER.
THIS PLUME IS APT TO GREATLY ENHANCE RAINFALL ALONG THE POLAR
FRONT NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL STATES, WITH MORE GENERALIZED
SYNOPTIC RAINFALL OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A LARGE SURFACE CYCLONE
BEGINS TO DEEPEN NORTH OF THE BORDER. ANOTHER REGION THAT LOOKS
WET THIS PERIOD IS FLORIDA, WHERE THE TAIL END OF THE POLAR FRONT
SHOULD WRING OUT A GOOD BIT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF
THE STATE.



CISCO

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