420
FXUS63 KDDC 190930
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
430 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures in the 90s and strong south winds are
  expected Sunday afternoon.

- Numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and
  evening. Some storms are expected to be severe with large hail
  and damaging winds.

- The highest risk of straight line wind damage will be east of
  Dodge City Sunday evening, where gusts of 60-90 mph are
  expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Midnight infrared satellite and radar imagery depicted a well
developed mesoscale convective system (MCS) over NW KS. 00z
ARW/NAM retain this system`s integrity all night, brushing
against the NW zones through sunrise Sunday. Marginally severe
wind gusts will remain possible overnight, with a developing
warm advection pattern and low level jet feeding the complex.
Elsewhere, light east winds will begin trending SEly toward
sunrise, which will begin to enhance the process of moisture
transport from the southern plains and Gulf of Mexico. Many
locations will stay above 60 through sunrise Sunday.

Shortwave near the Four Corners at 7 am Sunday will progress
to the I-25 corridor at midday, and reach the SW KS dryline
near max heating (2-4 pm). Models have remained locked in this
timing with the diurnal cycle for several days. Dryline will
sharpen quickly after sunrise, and essentially bisect the DDC
CWA along the US 83/283 corridors at 4 pm. Models maintain
continuity showing warm 700 mb temperatures in the 11-12C range
as the shortwave approaches, but the 700 mb thermal trough
should shave that down a few degrees as the shortwave passes.
Warm sector east of the dryline Sunday afternoon will be hot,
moist and volatile, with widespread CAPE near/exceeding 4000
J/kg. Temperatures in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the 60s
are expected; midnight surface analysis and 00z raobs show
deep, widespread moisture across the southern plains that will
advect into SW KS rapidly through afternoon. Importantly, some
flavor of outflow boundary will likely be left behind by this
morning`s MCS, and this will be a mesoscale ingredient that will
be tracked today. Thunderstorms are expected to develop first
along US 83 near 4 pm. Initial updrafts should develop into
supercells rapidly, with hail of 1-2 inches in diameter. During
the 5-7 pm time range, a very rapid expansion/redevelopment
eastward is expected, as forcing for ascent interacts with the
warm sector. Many of the assorted CAMS are in remarkable
agreement of a quick evolution to a quasi-linear MCS, marching
east of US 283 by 7 pm. Damaging winds are expected from this
MCS, with straight line wind gusts of 60-90 mph probable with
the stronger line segments. This threat is expected to be
maximized along the US 183 corridor (Hays-Greensburg) in the 7-9
pm time range, as the complex encounters increasing instability
and rear inflow jets are at maximum strength. Storms are
expected to exit the DDC CWA no later than midnight. The
tornado risk is much more conditional and problematic. Any
discrete supercell that can sustain itself southeast of DDC to
northwest Oklahoma during the evening, and take advantage of the
low level jet ahead of the accelerating MCS, would have high
end hail/tornado risk. But the existence of such a storm is very
uncertain. Have much higher confidence of QLCS tornado/mesovortex
spinups on the leading edge of the advancing MCS, which would
just be masked by widespread damaging outflow winds anyway.

Given the excellent CAM/model agreement, and background
impressive unstable/sheared warm sector, have coordinated a
wind-driven moderate risk (45% wind probability) with SPC for
Sunday afternoon/evening. Hurricane force gusts of 75 mph or
greater are probable, with some gusts as high as 90 mph on the
apex of the strongest bows. As mentioned by SPC and shown by
some HRRR runs, gusts of 100-105 mph are possible (especially
east of Dodge City), with wind damage a very real threat.

Have several ways to receive warnings Sunday afternoon and
evening. Many will be outdoors and away from shelter, engaged
in recreational or camping activities, which increases the risk
from damaging winds significantly. A reminder: straight line
winds can do plenty of damage; you do NOT need a tornado to do
significant tree/property damage. Please heed all warnings,
especially if outdoors and away from shelter. Severe
thunderstorm warnings with gusts of 80 mph or greater will carry
a "destructive" wording tag, and will alert WEA (wireless
emergency alerts) on phones and other mobile devices.

Most guidance allows the dryline to retreat rapidly westward back
into SW KS Sunday night/Monday morning. This makes sense, given
broadscale synoptic troughing remaining across the Rockies.
Moisture will return dramatically through early Monday, but
with a lack of forcing and surface CAPE depleted by the MCS,
this period should be dry.

Severe risk will continue on Monday, with a new surface cyclone
developing near Baca county Colorado by 7 pm. A dryline/frontal
boundary triple point will exist nearby, probably near the KS/OK
border or just south. Another volatile hot, moist unstable airmass
is forecast across the southeast zones. Capping may be an issue,
as seen by much model guidance not generating convective QPF.
Still, this potential for supercells will need to be assessed
once we get through Sunday`s event. Monday will remain hot with
above normal temperatures, in the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

With a busy short term, little time was spent on the long term,
and NBM was accepted. Models remain consistent ejecting a
significant piece of the Rockies trough into the northern plains
Tuesday. The associated cold front will swing through SW KS
Tuesday, with noticeably cooler, drier, and much more stable air
arriving Tuesday through Wednesday on elevated north winds.
With moisture and instability being pushed away, this evolution
will end any chance of rain/storms Tuesday through Wednesday.
NBM remains consistent with its previous runs and 00z MEX with
Wednesday being the coolest day, with sunrise temperatures in
the 40s, and pleasant afternoon temperatures in the 70s.
Afternoon temperatures will warm quickly back through the 80s
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Outside of the influence of showers and thunderstorms, VFR will
continue to prevail through this TAF cycle, through about 06z
Mon. Wind fields will be variable in direction for the next few
hours, as outflow from the thunderstorm complex north of SW KS
slowly washes out. After 15z Sun, winds will quickly become
south and increase, gusting 30-35 kts. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to initiate on a dryline near US 83
(GCK-LBL) around 21z Sun, then rapidly spread eastward to impact
DDC/HYS through 00z Mon. Using 00z ARW as a guide, only
mentioned VCTS/CB for now, with the expectation that TEMPO
groups will eventually be required, once the expected squall
line is trackable on radar. Some thunderstorms Sunday are
expected to be severe, with the primary risk to aviation being
erratic/severe outflow winds in excess of 50 kts. All
thunderstorms are expected to be east of the airports
by 03z Mon. Consensus of short term models is for IFR stratus
along with areas of FG/DZ will develop late in this period,
06-12z Mon, and showed that trend at the end of this TAF
package.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner