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000
FXUS64 KAMA 212044
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES TO EARLIER FORECAST.  FOR TONIGHT...
HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS THIS EVENING IN NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST
AREA...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SAME FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN ONE THIRD OF AREA...ALONG EXPECTED INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG MODEST CONVERGENCE ZONE.  MOISTURE DEEPENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WARRANTING CONTINUATION OF EVENING POPS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF
AREA.  HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS INTO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALONG NOSE OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE.

ON THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED MORNING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE...AND HAVE
KEPT POPS DURING AFTERNOON.  RICH AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...AUGMENTED BY DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS DRYLINE RETREATS AND 850 MB UPSLOPE FLOW OF
AROUND 50 DEVELOPS.  CONCUR WITH SPC THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

HAVE REORIENTED POPS ON FRIDAY...DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION OF DRYLINE
IN FAR WESTERN ZONES.  HAVE KEPT POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS DEEP RICH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.  HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN HALF OF AREA ON MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION
OF DRYLINE.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                51  88  56  89  59 /  10  10  20  30  30
BEAVER OK                  47  86  51  78  58 /  10  20  20  40  40
BOISE CITY OK              46  86  50  82  56 /  20   5  20  30  30
BORGER TX                  54  90  57  86  59 /  20  20  20  30  40
BOYS RANCH TX              51  92  55  89  61 /  10   5  10  20  30
CANYON TX                  50  88  56  89  59 /  10  10  10  30  30
CLARENDON TX               52  89  59  88  63 /  10  20  20  30  40
DALHART TX                 45  89  50  86  57 /  20   5  10  30  30
GUYMON OK                  46  87  51  79  59 /  20  10  20  40  40
HEREFORD TX                50  89  57  90  58 /  10   5  10  20  30
LIPSCOMB TX                48  85  54  78  61 /  10  20  20  40  40
PAMPA TX                   51  85  54  86  57 /  20  20  20  40  40
SHAMROCK TX                51  86  55  85  62 /   5  20  20  30  40
WELLINGTON TX              52  91  58  87  64 /   5  20  20  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/03