Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 220815
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
415 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...MORE RAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TODAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE OVER A HALF AN INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LARGE AND SLOW MOVING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LASTING RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BOUT OF SOMEWHAT CHILLY LATE MAY
AIR ALONG WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-222015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
415 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF DENSE FOG
                    UNTIL 1700. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1100
                    UNTIL 1400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT...EXCEPT 90-95 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (230).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.31 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2000. RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.37-0.68 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58...EXCEPT AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......35 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.26 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-222015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
415 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 0800.
                    AREAS OF DENSE FOG AFTER 0800. RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 1200. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71...EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT...EXCEPT 93-98 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.17-0.61 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG UNTIL
                    2000. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.45-0.89 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL
                    1400...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57...EXCEPT AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......36 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 27 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (870).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.36 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-222015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
415 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY DENSE FOG UNTIL
                    0800. AREAS OF DENSE FOG AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1700.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1100. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 1100 UNTIL 1400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69...EXCEPT 51-56 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 8 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT...EXCEPT 83-88 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.36 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2000. RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.37-0.67 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......27 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1020).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.21 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-222015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
415 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800...THEN AREAS OF FOG AFTER 1400 UNTIL 1700.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
                    1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.27-0.43 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2000. RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 7 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 17 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.55-0.71 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY
                    SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......29 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.27 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-222015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
415 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 0800.
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 1200. SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.29-0.62 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2000. RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.63-0.76 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY
                    SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......27 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (970).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 24 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.18-0.34 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AREAS OF FROST. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FROST. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. LIGHT WINDS.
.MEMORIAL DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. LIGHT WINDS.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MB
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