858
FXUS62 KCAE 191043
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
643 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture across the region will keep rain chances
likely lingering into Sunday, especially across the CSRA. Drier
air will be over the region for Monday through Wednesday along
with warming temperatures.The next frontal boundary will
approach the region Thursday and is expected to stall just north
of the area resulting in chances of showers and thunderstorms
Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A backdoor cold front will continue to slip through the
forecast area with rain chances decreasing across the northern
Midlands this morning. The passage of an upper trough combined
with high PWATs will promote the development of additional
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with convection most
likely over the CSRA and adjacent portions of the southern
Midlands. A few thunderstorms could be strong, especially over
Burke County, GA which is just north of the Marginal (1/5) risk
for severe weather in the Day 1 SPC outlook. Gusty winds will be
the primary severe hazard through there will be a non-zero risk
for large hail as well with any robust thunderstorms. Drier air
will move southward through the day with PoPs decreasing from
north to south through the afternoon and evening hours. Any
lingering showers and thunderstorms should move out of the
region early this evening with decreasing cloudiness tonight.
Northeast winds behind the front combined with widespread
cloudiness will limit how warm temperatures get. Forecast highs
range from the lower to mid 70s in the northern and central
Midlands to the upper 70s in the CSRA and southern Midlands.
With clearing skies and drier air filtering in, a cool night is
anticipated with forecast lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be moving toward the central Atlantic States
from the western Great Lakes today and be centered north of
the area tonight. This will keep dry conditions over the
forecast area with northerly winds between 5 and 10 mph from
late morning through the afternoon hours. With cool and dry air
in the mid and low levels the only clouds expected through the
period will be some cirrus crossing the region. High
temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 50s to around
60. Radiational cooling will be good tonight however light winds
combined with the cirrus will prevent cooling from becoming
optimal. This will yield overnight lows ranging from the low 30s
north to the upper 30s in the SE Midlands and southern CSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level trough will continue tracking away from the region
Monday as upper level ridging builds from the western Gulf States
through New England. On Tuesday the ridge will migrate slightly
eastward with its progress being slowed by the deep upper level
trough remaining over the western Atlantic. At the surface weak
high  pressure will be in control of the Atlantic Seaboard
keeping drier air over the forecast area for Monday and Tuesday.
Pwat values will drop to around 0.9 inches Monday morning and
remain there through Tuesday with model soundings indicating a
weak subsidence inversion. With the subsidence inversion
suppressing convection expect cumulus to develop each day
however vertical development will be limited. Temperatures will
also moderate slightly each day as the upper level ridge builds
into the region and surface flow turns from northeasterly to
easterly on Tuesday. As such afternoon high temperatures on
Monday will be in the low 80s and the mid 80s on Tuesday. With
mostly clear skies and light winds expected each night
radiational cooling will be good allowing overnight lows to fall
into the upper 50s to around 60s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Restrictions Likely to Persist at the Terminals this Morning...

A backdoor cold front continues to move slowly south through the
Midlands early this morning. Between passing showers and
thunderstorms, lowered ceilings, and fog, all terminals are
seeing some form of restrictions at this time. Low clouds are
likely to persist at CAE/CUB/OGB this morning and should spread
to AGS/DNL during the next hour or two. A few showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm are possible at the terminals this
afternoon, especially AGS/DNL. Thunderstorm potential has been
omitted from the TAFs for now due to low confidence. Drier air
moves in from the north this evening allowing ceilings to rise
to VFR by 00Z Monday with clearing skies tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... No significant flight restrictions
are currently anticipated Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$