837
FXUS62 KCAE 021904
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
304 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture increases across the Southeast through mid week. This
will support isolated to scattered convection mainly in the
afternoons and evenings. A cold front will approach the region
late in the week leading to increasing rain chances and a chance
for severe weather. Temperatures will be near or above normal
through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite imagery shows scattered to broken clouds across the area
this afternoon. Radar continues to detect some rain showers across
the region, generally light to moderate in intensity, with ground
sites generally reporting a few hundredths up to a few tenths of an
inch of accumulation. Shower development along with isolated
thunderstorms (lightning has been detected across northeast GA) will
continue to be supported by a few shortwaves moving through the flow
this afternoon. Warm air advection and some solar insolation has
warmed temperatures into the upper 70s and a few low 80s, and
dewpoints are higher than yesterday in the low to mid 60s. SPC
mesoanalysis indicates this has generated 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE in
an uncapped environment, so still think there is a chance for some
thunder this afternoon. However, organized convection is not
expected with a lack of wind shear. Additionally, DCAPE values are
less than 500 J/kg with a saturated column and PW values of 1.4"-
1.6". Poor lapse rates are also working against convective
development, so despite some upper level support from a passing
shortwave, most of the activity is likely to be diurnally driven and
should wane with loss of heating.

Rain chances decrease tonight as the high moves further offshore
along with the upper level trough. This will put us under northwest
flow aloft for a period of time. Residual low level moisture may
allow for a stratus deck to persist, which will keep temperatures
mild with lows likely in the mid 60s once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure offshore will promote weak southerly flow across
the region. As an upper trough moves offshore through the early
portion of the day, the deeper moisture appears to shift east of
the forecast area. However PWAT values should still be around
1.5 inches supporting afternoon convection. Southerly or SE low
level flow along the coast will allow a sea-breeze boundary to
move inland through the day which may serve as the trigger for
convection in eastern portions of the forecast area. Daytime
heating will allow the airmass to become conditionally unstable
with sbCAPE values likely between 750 to 1500 J/kg. The threat
of severe weather is low however. CAPE profiles are tall and
skinny with low LI values indicating limited updraft strength.
Warm air aloft moves into the area during the evening working to
suppress convection along with loss of heating. Lows near
normal values in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level ridging will be over the region from Tuesday into
early Wednesday. This will work to induce a mid-level capping
inversion hindering convective development. Convection on
Tuesday should remain isolated to widely scattered despite a
seasonal warm, moist airmass.

Global ensemble mean 500mb heights flatten the ridge mid-week
as an upper trough digs into the Upper Midwest. SW flow over the
Southeast strengthens in response pushing PWAT values above 1.5
inches to possibly near 2 inches. At the surface, a cold front
is expected to drop from the Ohio Valley southwest into the
Mississippi valley on Thursday. Warm, moist advection ahead of
the front will increase rainfall chances mid to late week when
the front moves through the area. Above normal moisture,
increased shear and moderate instability with shortwave activity
poses some risk for severe weather from Wednesday to Friday.
Drier air will move into the region behind the front for the end
of the long term, but temperatures won`t cool much with highs
still around normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Extensive cloud cover remains over the region with scattered light
showers moving from southwest to northeast. A few showers may become
moderate to strong this afternoon, and lightning has been observed
west of the terminals. So while thunder is not currently in the
TAFs, there is a chance for an isolated strike or two this afternoon
or early this evening. Brief CIG/VSBY restrictions are possible, but
confidence is too low to include in the TAFs. Precip chances move
east of the terminals late tonight, or around 03/03z. Surface winds
are expected to generally be SLY/SELY at 8-10 kts with a few gusts
to 15 kts this afternoon, decreasing to light and variable
overnight. Winds on Monday should be out of the southwest at less
than 10 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday with
intermittent CIG/VSBY restrictions possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$