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000
FXUS61 KCLE 181613
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1213 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SINK SOUTH TO SOUTHERN OHIO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING COOL BUT FAIR WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVER THE COURSE
OF THE WEEKEND...SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...EVEN THOUGH COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED SOUTH THRU MOST OF THE CWA...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGER BACK
BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITY IS DECREASED BEHIND THE FORNT SO DON`T
EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE CONVECTION TO OCCUR THERE SO LAKESHORE SHOULD
BE DRY REST OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW EROSION OF CLOUDS OVER
THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES AS JUST TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DISSIPATE AWAY
THAT QUICKLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE WILL
CLEAR THE SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG THE OH RIVER TO WV RETAINING SOME CLOUDS INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. WILL HAVE ALL AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT REGION IN STORE FOR A STRETCH
OF PLEASANT AND FAIR WEATHER WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY AND WARMTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST BEGINS TO
SHIFT OUR WAY WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL TAKE TEMPS TO
AROUND 80...IN TIME FOR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA.  IN GENERAL EXPECT INCREASING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY AND DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA BUT EXPECT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS GIVEN THEY ARE ISOLATED AND LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COULD SEE A LITTLE EARLY
MORNING MIST/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
FORECAST GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY.

.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
ADJUSTED THE WINDS UP ON THE LAKE. IT COULD BE CLOSE TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. WITH
THE WIND INCREASE THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE EARLY AND FOR MOST OF THE
DAY WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE FRONT THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN LAKES. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY TO THE CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
SHIFT TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT SHOULD THEN DECREASE
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS SATURDAY. OTHER THAN EARLY
TODAY MAINLY EAST...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KIELTYKA/TK