Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 160535
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
135 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge builds briefly into the area tonight and
early Saturday. A strong cold front tracks through the region
late Saturday evening into early Saturday night. Colder airmass
in place for the end of the weekend through around mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

1:35 AM EDT Update...

Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model
guidance. No changes appeared necessary.

Previous discussion...
Drier is air is attempting to push into the region, and seeing
some of the cloud bases rise with modest boundary layer mixing,
but the eastern half of the CWA is still dealing with low level
cold air advection off Lake Erie. This will make the stratus
significantly slower to erode in this area. Should clear out by
late morning Saturday into the early afternoon hours with the
surface ridge just to the southeast, shifting winds to a more
southerly direction. This is all ahead of another cold front
that will be dropping in from the northwest, associated with a
closed upper level low tracking across northern Ontario.
Expecting a line of showers with this cold front, no thunder, as
it moves into the CWA after 21Z Saturday. It should be fairly
quick, and will likely push through the southeastern zones by
06Z Sunday. This will usher in a significant change of airmass,
and will mark the beginning of a chillier period of weather for
the southern Great Lakes that will continue well into the short
term forecast period. Ahead of that cold front, however, should
have nice temperature recovery with some insolation and the
aforementioned southerly flow, reaching the 55-60F range,
slightly cooler right along the lakeshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will take up residence across the Great Lakes
through the short term period with a couple of pieces of jet energy
rotating through the flow. This will keep chances of precipitation
in the forecast with the greatest chances occur downwind of the lake
across NE OH into NW PA on Monday. Temperatures gradually cool at
850mb through the short term period but only get down to -8 C to
-11 C late Sunday through Monday night. So there will be a mixture
of rain or snow through the period with a light accumulation
possible across NE OH into NW PA Sunday night through Monday night.
These light accumulations likely occur only during the dark hours.

Highs in the 40`s on Sunday, dipping to the 30`s for Monday. Lows in
the 20`s to around 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level trough remains in place over the region through the long
term period. There is a significant spread in solutions on when the
jet energy moves through the flow. The best chance of lake enhanced
precipitation will be Tuesday into Tuesday night. It should end from
west to east Tuesday night into Wednesday. There could be some light
snow accumulations Tuesday night across NE OH into NW PA.

It appears temperatures will moderate back up to seasonal levels by
Wednesday. the warming trend then continues through Friday with
highs into the 50`s. Lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night range
from the 20`s to lower 30`s. Lows by Thursday night should be in the
mid 30`s to around 40.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Primarily W`erly flow aloft persists through 06Z/Sun as a
disturbance approaches from the Upper Midwest and western Great
Lakes. At the surface, a ridge exits generally E`ward as a cold
front approaches from the Upper MS Valley and vicinity. This
front should begin to sweep E`ward into our region after 01Z/Sun
and near KYNG, KCAK, and KRZT by 06Z/Sun. Our regional winds
trend light and variable or calm through ~12Z/Sat. Thereafter,
surface winds become SW`erly around 10-20 knots with gusts up to
20-30 knots, especially after ~15Z/Sat. Behind the cold front,
our regional surface winds veer to WNW`erly and remain around
10-20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.

Primarily VFR are expected ahead of and behind the front.
However, pockets of low clouds and associated MVFR/IFR ceilings
across northern OH and NW PA should exit generally NE`ward
between ~10Z and ~15Z/Sat as mean low-level flow becomes SW`erly
on the backside of the departing ridge at/near the surface.
Pockets of mist with MVFR/IFR visibility are also possible
through ~12Z/Sat. A roughly two to three-hour period of rain
showers is expected along and just ahead of the cold front.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periods of rain and/or snow
Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Ridge of high pressure moves across the lake tonight with lighter
winds expected. Southwesterly winds increase on Saturday with the
expectation that winds increase to 15 to 25 mph across the western
half of the lake by the afternoon. So a small craft advisory is a
strong possibility for about 6 hours from mid afternoon into the
evening. A cold front cross the lake Saturday evening with westerly
winds of 15 to 20 knots expected through Monday night. There is an
increase in the winds on Monday to around 20 knots. The longer fetch
may be enough to build waves from Cleveland to Ripley late Saturday
night through Tuesday to warrant a small craft advisory.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/26
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...MM


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