Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 141943
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
343 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region late this afternoon
into the evening. In the wake of the front high pressure
controls the region through Tuesday morning. The next warm
front approaches from the Mid Ohio Valley on Tuesday.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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The better lift associated with this storm system is
currently(1930Z) moving across Lake Erie. PBZ sounding is
indicating rather dry low levels as the lift moves in to assist
in eroding the cap that has been over the region through the
day. We are seeing a little bit of low level moisture increase
ahead of the front and just ahead of this lift. This should all
combine to generate convection over the next hour or so with the
expectation of upscale growth. Still leaning toward an isolated
to scattered coverage as the cold front sags southward across
the lake.
The drier low levels lead us to a greater wind threat with any
of the stronger updrafts that develop. While there is a
marginal or greater risk of severe thunderstorms near and south
of a Wattsburg to Findlay line it appears that the greatest
threat is across our southeastern CWA. This area is mainly near
and east of I-77. There is potential for a couple supercells so
large hail may also accompany the damaging wind gust potential.
It looks like the main time period for these thunderstorms to
occur will be between 4 PM and 10 PM.
In the wake of the cold front high pressure will increase its
influence on the region. This ridge then gradually drifts
eastward through the day. Lows tonight dip into the 40`s. Highs
Monday range from the upper 50`s across inland NW PA to around
70 across NW OH.
The quiet weather continues into MOnday night but the next warm
front will be approaching from the middle Mississippi Valley. So
there may be an increase in high level cloud cover late in the
night. Lows range from the upper 30`s across inland NW PA to the
mid 40`s.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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An upper trough will move through the central CONUS on Tuesday and
will support a low pressure system that will move through the Great
Lakes on Wednesday. For Tuesday, a warm front will extend ahead of
the system and lift toward the lake and rain chances will increase
as the feature enters the forecast area. A ridge across the region
will likely limit both the coverage and intensity of rain on
Tuesday, although some mid-level vorticity advection will move
through the area to help break down the ridge a bit. The main show
appears to be Wednesday as the front will lift north across the lake
and the main forcing mechanisms of the surface low and upper trough
will enter the region to allow for widespread rain chances. The
system will be fairly dynamic with good jet energy and moisture will
advect into the region. There will some instability to allow for
some rumbles but as far as widespread storm chances, it`s a bit
tricky to figure this far out, as there could be issues with lots of
rain in the region to wipe out a large threat, especially this far
north. However, will continue to highlight high PoPs and Wednesday
will need to be monitored as the details become more clear.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The long term forecast trend will be largely drier and cooler
through the weekend. There will be some smaller chances for rain
through the period, but greatly diminished after the more active mid
week system. The long term forecast will mostly be driven by an
upper trough that will dig into the upper Midwest on Thursday,
moving east through Canada through Friday and Saturday. Energy
behind this trough will then swing through the Great Lakes region
for the weekend and bring cooler temperatures across the area, along
with high pressure that should drive a dry period to transition into
next week. Rain chances for the first half of the period will be
driven by a front remaining across the Ohio Valley region from the
midweek system. Any rain chances seem marginal as the main upper
level support seems to be drifting off to the northeast. The region
will be on the cold side of the front though and temperatures will
decrease through the period starting with 60s on Thursday down to
barely lower 50s on Sunday. Nighttime lows will be trending cooler
for the weekend into next week and frost/freeze potential does exist.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Cold front will cross the lake this afternoon into the evening
with isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along and
ahead of it. Only mentioned thunder at KMFD/KCAK and KYNG. KYNG
TAF has the best chance to be impacted by severe weather with
gusts of 45+ knots possible around 00Z. The only non-VFR
conditions will occur near and in thunderstorms.
Southwest to west winds become northerly in the wake of the
cold front. The southwest winds will gust through late afternoon
with gusts around 30 knots.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic rain showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
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.MARINE...
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Strong offshore flow will continue over the next couple of hours to
allow for hazardous weather conditions for small craft on Lake Erie
and will maintain the headline through this evening. A front will
then cross the lake and allow for northerly flow to take over across
the lake and diminish, allowing for any headline to end. High
pressure will be over the lake on Monday and allow for lighter flow
to develop. A warm front will lift to the lake on Tuesday and
promote easterly flow across the basin. The front will lift north of
the lake for Wednesday as a low pressure system moves through the
Great Lakes region and there will be concern for a marine headline
with that system, as robust southeast flow will be expected on
Wednesday and a window of enhanced southwest flow will be expected
on Wednesday night into Thursday behind the system.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
LEZ142>145.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Iverson