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000
FXUS61 KCLE 230519
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
119 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
KEPT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. LOTS
OF UPWARD MOTION AND AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS A LITTLE TOO DRY AND A
LITTLE TOO STABLE FOR MUCH SEVERE WEATHER. THAT BEING SAID...ANY
OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS CAN HAVE A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR AND GUSTY
WINDS.

THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS CROSSING NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AS IT MOVES ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LINGERING
SHOWER ANYTIME OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER
60S...LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY USHERING IN A
DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL NEED 70 PERCENT
OR HIGHER POPS ALL AREAS BY MIDDAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND A
SECONDARY FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
CLEARING TOMORROW NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE EAST
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY. THE AIR MASS SET TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL BE VERY COLD WITH 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND ZERO. IF WINDS
LESSEN AS EXPECTED...WE MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. NO MENTION YET BUT HAVE GOT
LOW TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 3OS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 60S THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING CLEARING
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY EAST.
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN THREAT FOR SOME FROST OVER THOSE
AREAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD START TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEST
HALF OF THE AREA ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. WILL
MENTION PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BY MONDAY MORNING.

GOOD NEWS ON THE HORIZON WILL BE THE LARGE BROAD RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL SET UP A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A WARM
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
MEANS WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST POTENTIAL STRETCH OF VERY WARM AND
MUGGY AIR. UNTIL THEN...A MASSIVE WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

LATEST MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEXT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO SEE IF THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHERN OHIO AND NWRN PA REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AS A RESULT EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF
ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL HOWEVER DROP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 14Z OR SO
IMPACTING KTOL AND KFDY FIRST BEFORE DROPPING ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR POST FRONT WITH
RAIN...MIST/FOG AND LOWERED CIGS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...LINGERING NON VFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IN TURN CAUSE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS TO
FLY. I ANTICIPATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN WINDS FINALLY DIMINISH AND GO LIGHT NORTHWEST. A
BIT OF AN INCREASE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TILL TAKE PLACE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY