Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 150643
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
243 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure and a cold front moves south through the region
later this evening and tonight. High pressure will build into
the Midwest behind the front for Friday. A low pressure system
will dive southeast across the Great Lakes region this weekend
bringing in a chilly airmass for the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

2:30 AM EDT Update...

Most of the near-term forecast remains valid. However, issued a
Dense Fog Advisory for our Lake Erie waters between Vermilion
and Buffalo, and for multiple counties in north-central OH, NE
OH, and our two NW PA counties. Advection fog has developed over
Lake Erie behind the cold front and is beginning to advance
inland via predominantly NW`erly to N`erly surface winds. Net
radiational cooling and lingering low-level moisture from recent
rainfall should also allow stratus to expand downward to the
surface and result in additional fog formation should daybreak
this morning, especially within the advisory. Fog should
dissipate via diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer
late this morning and as drier air gradually overspreads our CWA
behind the cold front. Ambient WX grids were also updated
accordingly. It appears the surface cold front was located just
north and west of Meadville, PA to just east and south of
Marion, OH at 2:30 AM EDT this morning. The front will continue
moving SE`ward and should exit the rest of our CWA by 5 AM EDT
this morning. Rain showers remain possible along the low-level
portion of the front due to low-level convergence, associated
moist ascent, and release of weak and mainly elevated CAPE.

Previous Discussion from 3:18 PM EDT March 14th...

The line of convection that has worked into the western zones
has degraded slightly sooner/further west than originally
anticipated, but still has small pockets of wind embedded
within. Leftover convection will continue the eastward push,
further moving into slightly more stable low/mid level
atmosphere. The focus then turns to the setup in the wake of
this line of convection, and carefully watching the real time
observations back over northern Indiana. This is going to give
clues as to how well the atmosphere recovers. Stationary
boundary has lifted slight north as a warm front to the northern
shore of Lake Erie. Surface low continues its track east
northeastward towards southern Lake Michigan. In the clearing,
northern Indiana temperatures are quickly recovering 4-8F with
insolation and continued southerly feed. Low level moisture
transport, particularly 925-850mb on the increase as well as is
the low level jet in general, and it appears there is a cumulus
field trying to redevelop in the clearing. Expecting the next
batch of convection to move into the western zones of the CWA
after 22Z or so with the approach of the surface/frontal
boundary, and driven by a weak open wave aloft tracking across
Lake Michigan towards southern Ontario. Limited MUCAPE should
not be an issue for additional storm formation with strong wind
potential given the fast low level flows and aided by mid level
drying. 850mb winds increase to 50-60kts, and helicity on the
rise as well giving the potential for rotation. As of 235PM
while composing this, it appears the beginnings of this next
round of convection are forming via visible satellite imagery in
central Illinois. The next question will be timing the arrival
of the convection with the expected southeastward push of the
frontal boundary over northwest OH. Expecting the main
convective activity to be relegated to the southern half of the
CWA heading into the evening/late evening. Also need to watch
additional rainfall for the northwestern zones where 1.25-1.75
inches of rain have fallen already.

High pressure after 18Z Friday into Friday ends the near term with
dry weather. Temperatures cooler Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A stronger cold front moves across the region on Saturday with lake
enhanced rain showers developing then continuing into Saturday
night. Rain will begin to transition to snow on Sunday as the colder
air deepens across the region. Lake effect snow should develop
Sunday night with light accumulations anticipated.

Highs Saturday should be in the 50`s. Lows Saturday dip to the 30`s.
Not much recovery on Sunday with highs in the 40`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold air continues over the region into Monday as another strong
upper level trough moves across the region by Monday evening. Expect
to see some snow across a large portion of the region but it will
have difficulty accumulating until Monday evening after sunset. Some
lake effect rain/snow looks like it will persist across NE OH into
NW PA Tuesday Night into Wednesday.

Temperatures will be below seasonal averages Monday into Tuesday.
Slightly warmer Wednesday into THursday with highs returning to the
40`s to lower 50`s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
W`erly flow aloft persists through 06Z/Sat. At the surface, a
cold from extended SW`ward from just north and west of KGKJ to
just east and south of KMNN. This front continues moving SE`ward
and should exit the rest of our region by ~09Z/Fri. Behind the
front, a ridge builds into our region as the core of the ridge
shifts from the northern Great Plains toward the Ozarks. Our
regional surface winds around 5-10 knots veer from primarily
SW`erly ahead of the front to primarily NW`erly to N`erly behind
the front.

Widespread low-level ceilings in the VFR to MVFR range ahead of
the front lower to the MVFR to IFR range behind the front.
Areas of advection fog and fog related to downward expansion of
stratus are expected behind the front, especially in NE OH and
NW PA. Ceilings/visibility as low as LIFR are expected in fog.
This fog should dissipate via diurnal convective mixing of the
boundary layer late this morning. In addition, the low-level
ceilings should exit our region generally from NW to SE during
this afternoon through early evening. Of note, scattered rain
showers are expected along the low- level portion of the cold
front. The potential for these showers should end gradually from
NW to SE through ~14Z/Fri.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periods of rain and/or snow
Saturday night through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A stationary boundary will linger near the south shore of the lake
through the evening as low pressure eventually tracks eastward along
it. In its wake a cold front will cross the region with winds
shifting to the west and northwest while increasing to 10 to 15
knots. Thunderstorms through the evening may produce locally higher
wind gusts.

High pressure briefly builds into the region Friday into Saturday.
The next cold front moves across the region at some point Saturday
evening. Southwesterly winds ahead of the front may get close to
small craft levels but as winds shift to the west they increase to
15 to 25 knots with the stronger cold air advection. These stronger
winds persist into Monday night or Tuesday with the direction
bouncing from northwest to southwest.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for OHZ010>014-
     020>023-089.
PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LEZ145>149-
     165>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/26
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...MM


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