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000
FXUS61 KCLE 120305
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1105 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure with a cold front passes later this evening
into early tonight. It will strengthen as it does so with
increasing winds Friday. High pressure returns for Saturday with
a warming trend into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Rainfall today has generally ranged from a half inch on the
lower end to an inch and a quarter, except locally over 2 inches
at Toledo Express. Rain has been filling back in, especially
across eastern portions of the forecast area where a few Flood
Advisories have been issued. Rates have not been high enough
given the lack of convection to see flash flooding but ponding
of water is developing along with some creeks that may be
starting to exceed their banks. The threat of severe weather has
ended with a general lack of instability and only a few
thunderstorms occurring in our area this evening. And while
minor flooding may continue overnight, not expecting to see
this intensify as training does not look significant and rates
are generally a third of an inch or less.

Previous discussion...
A Flood Watch remains in effect and will continue to be the main
concern tonight as the ground is nearly saturated with rivers
and creeks rising. We have largely dodged a heavier swath of
rain that has been focused across southeast Ohio towards
Pittsburgh with deep south to southwest flow and favorable
moisture transport into an area of low level convergence ahead
of the broad surface low. A lack of appreciable breaks in
showers and clouds today has limited instability across our
forecast area. At 00Z, SPC mesoanalysis indicates around 250 J/kg
of ML CAPE across northern Central Ohio. Precipitation this
evening has largely been confined to western and eastern fringes
of the forecast area but is expected to fill in between. We are
seeing some re-development extending north from Columbus ahead
of the cold front wrapping in from the west. While deep
convection is unlikely at this point, these showers may exhibit
rotation given the low pressure and surface convergence focused
across north central Ohio. For that reason, have left a chance
of thunderstorms in the forecast although not sure if
thunderstorms will actually develop. Potential for damaging
winds and hail has diminished considerably but will be
monitoring rotation in low topped showers and the potential for
training which could warrant the need for Flood Advisories or
even possibly Flash Flood Warnings. 0-1 KM shear is only on the
order of 10-15 knots and expect instability to wane through 10
PM, ending the threat of a short lived spin up. Have coordinated
with SPC and the new outlook should reflect the lower severe
weather threat for tonight.

Previous discussion...Turning the focus to the rainfall across
the region, a Flood Watch has been issued for the area. Much of
this is due to the antecedent conditions even going back to a
few days ago where a few inches of rain feel over the southern
zones. With rain since last night already over an inch in the
southern zone counties and a mainly saturated ground, could be
looking at more flood advisories with creeks and streams coming
out of their banks and some issues on the larger rivers as well.
Another 1-2 inches is possible across the mainly east of I-71
through Friday, and any developing organized and repeated
convection making hydrologic conditions a bit more fragile.

Meanwhile, the upper level low/surface low will be deepening as it
moves through and out of the region. This will exacerbate the
synoptic scale wind threat in the post frontal environment later
tonight into Friday with an increasing pressure gradient and
downgliding winds in the cold air advection. More upper level driven
showers expected Friday, and this will be the coolest day of the
forecast with only upper 40s to mid 50s expected across the region.
As precipitation chances exit to the east Friday night, temperatures
in NW Pennsylvania drop into the mid 30s, and some wet snow may mix
in late. No accumulation expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The large upper level trough over the Northeast CONUS and Eastern
Great Lakes region early Saturday will slowly push eastward. Upper
level ridging over the Central U.S. and Midwest will gradually build
eastward this weekend. A shortwave trough will ride over the top of
that building ridge on Sunday and swing through Upper and Eastern
Great Lakes region. We will have a drier day on Saturday with partly
cloudy skies and seasonable temperatures. A weak cold front will
drop from the north across the area late on Sunday. Ahead of that
front, temperatures will climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s and
maybe mid 70s, especially across NW Ohio Sunday afternoon. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms will become likely as that cold
front drops through late Sunday into the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The weather pattern looks very warm and springlike for next week. A
small area of high pressure will build into the area on Monday with
dry weather and mild temperatures. A large upper level trough and
storm system will develop across the Central U.S. by Tuesday and
track into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region by
Wednesday. A warm front will lift across the region on Tuesday with
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Our region will be in the
warm sector ahead of this next system Tuesday and Wednesday with
warm temperatures in the 70s. We will have to watch how this system
tracks and evolves across the region by next Wednesday for any
possible strong storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Difficult TAF package with lots of fluctuation in observations
as light showers move across the area. Most sites are MVFR
although more pockets of VFR have been expanding in NE Ohio.
Surface low pressure over north central Ohio will track north of
Lake Erie by 12Z Friday. As the low continues to the northeast,
it will pull a cold front east across the area overnight. This
fairly strong front will result in widespread IFR ceilings and
an expansion of showers. Generally light showers will continue
for much of the TAF period with lesser coverage towards FDY. We
also have a low end threat of a thunderstorm still through about
03Z at MFD/CAK/CLE along an area of convergence ahead of the
cold front moving north out of Central Ohio. Did not include
thunder in any of the terminals as it has overwhelmingly
struggled to develop with instability trending down through 03Z.

Winds range from NW at TOL/FDY behind the front with south to
southeast winds at eastern terminals to start the period. Winds
will veer to westerly or northwesterly behind the front and
increase late tonight into Friday. Some terminals in NW Ohio
and along the lakeshore may see wind gusts as high as 40 knots
on Friday afternoon. Some gradual improvement to ceilings is
expected through the day on Friday.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic rain showers through
Friday night. Wet snow may mix with rain in interior NW PA late
Friday evening into Saturday morning. Additional rain possible
Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
A deepening low pressure system will track across Lake Erie this
evening and slow down as it moves into southern Ontario as a 980 mb
low. Small Craft Advisories are out through Saturday for all the
nearshore waterways. Winds will be from the southeast 15 to 20 knots
this evening as the low approaches from the Ohio Valley. As the low
lifts into southern Ontario tonight, the trailing cold front will
move across the lake and veer winds from the the west-southwest and
speeds increasing to 20-30 knots. Winds on Friday will be from the
West at 20-30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots.  As the low pressure
system departs the region Friday night, winds will become west-
northwesterly 15 to 25 knots. Winds will then turn from the west-
southwest and further decrease to 10-15 knots Saturday afternoon as
high pressure builds over the region. Southwest winds generally 10
to 15 knots are expected the rest of the weekend, becoming light and
variable Sunday night into Monday.

Water levels will drop to near the critical mark for safe
marine navigation over the western basin of Lake Erie on Friday
due to the strong westerly winds around 30 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Friday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-
     027>033-036>038-047-089.
     Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday to midnight EDT Friday night
     for OHZ003-006>012-017>019-027-028.
PA...Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Friday for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ145-146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...KEC/26
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Griffin