Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 140612
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
212 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front drifts southward along the vicinity of the
Lake Erie shoreline later tonight through Thursday. A cold front
moves through Thursday night into early Friday. High pressure
for the beginning of the weekend, followed by another cold front
Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9:15 PM Update...
No changes were made to the forecast with this update. Last bit
of quiet weather tonight before our next chance for showers and
storms enters from the west early Thursday morning.

Previous discussion...
Much to consider with the near term forecast today. On the synoptic
scale, broad upper level low over the inter mountain west generating
surface low pressure on the lee side of the mountains near the
panhandle of Oklahoma. Weak boundary extends from that surface low
northeastward through the Great lakes and into eastern Ontario. This
boundary will end up drifting southward tonight into Thursday
morning, and stalling out in the vicinity of the southern shore of
Lake Erie for most of Thursday. Activity begins in our CWA with the
nose of a level jet pushing into northern Indiana and an associated
convective complex triggered by PVA in the flow aloft, and aided by
the aforementioned stationary front. Expecting this complex on the
eastern end to spill into northwest OH after 09Z or so tonight, with
the western zones getting clipped by potential thunderstorm
activity, if not with showers. There are two important factors to
consider with this early morning activity. First is the convective
debris clouds, extent of their eastward spread, and the resultant
effectiveness in stalling out the convective potential later that
day by stifling the instability. The second will be any leftover
convective outflow boundaries becoming the focus for later
development when the atmosphere recovers. Do expect this recovery to
happen at some point, but then we get into some of the convective
parameters not perfectly lining up. The best axis for instability
will be just south of the CWA, and will take some time before the
eastern half of the CWA even gets into the favored area for this,
likely after 18Z Thursday. The stationary front will make a slight
push back northward as a warm front across the lake Thursday
afternoon with the rapid approach of the surface low crossing the
mid Mississippi Valley towards northwest Ohio. Later in the day, we
get into a strengthening 850hPa jet along and ahead of the southern
portion of front/surface low. Given the westerly 0-6km bulk shear
vectors in the 50-60kt range, expecting a convective line to develop
and track across the CWA. The uncertainty comes into play with the
locations of the surface low/frontal boundary which some forecast
models have a slightly further south placement which could make the
preferred area for convection US 30 and south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Models are good agreement with the frontal position from western New
York to northeast Ohio to southwest Ohio Friday morning. Associated
convection will be southeast of the forecast area by mid-morning
Friday. However, post-frontal showers will persist through noon on
Friday and on tapering off from west to east later Friday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain steady in the morning and slowly falling
temps in the 40s due to cold air advection behind the cold front on
Friday. Temps will continue to fall in mid 30s by Saturday morning.
A temporary lull in precipitation will occur Friday evening and
Saturday. A brief high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures
will remain above average in the mid-50s. A short wave in northwest
flow will dive southeast across the Upper and Eastern Great Lakes
Saturday night. As a result, rain chances will increase across the
forecast area. However, rainfall amounts will remain less than a
tenth.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The approach of the main trough will allow winds to become northwest
Sunday through Tuesday. This feature will keep thickness layers from
increasing and keep temperatures cool and near-normal temperatures
Sunday through Tuesday. In addition, sufficient moisture will yield
mix precipitation on Sunday and scattered snow showers Sunday night
across the snowbelt region. Colder temperatures, residual moisture,
relatively warm lake waters, and winds becoming more northerly
Monday will increase the chance of snow across northern Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania. There is still some uncertainty with amounts
at this time and lake-effect snows will likely continue into
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions will continue early this morning as mid-to-high
level clouds enter the region ahead of an active weather system
later today. Winds are generally southerly to start, although a
front along the Lake Erie shoreline has allowed for some
easterlies. A low pressure system with an associated cold front
will enter the region today and bring several rounds of rain and
eventually a bonifide storm chance. Northwest Ohio will likely
have 2 or maybe 3 rounds of rain today before storms this
evening and have rain entering around daybreak for KTOL and
KFDY. The trajectory of the early rain will stay away from the
remaining terminals, but more rain should develop in the
afternoon hours and spread east across the region and have rain
mentions everywhere this afternoon. Visibility and ceilings
should settle to MVFR once rain gets going. The best window for
storm chances will be this evening and be the window for IFR at
all terminals and have sprinkled in the best TS timing in the
TAFs. The cold front will start moving through the region toward
the end of the TAF period and begin clearing rain from northwest
to southeast. Winds will shift to the northwest and an IFR deck
of ceilings will cascade across the region.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected in low ceilings behind a cold front
on Friday and Friday night. Non-VFR possible in rain showers
Saturday night through Sunday before changing to snow showers
Sunday night through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions should remain quiet across the lake through the
end of the week and even into the weekend. Marine headlines are
possible with Small Craft late Saturday as southwest winds increase
to near 20 knots, especially across the western basin of the lake. A
cold front is expected to move east across the lake by Sunday with
westerly of 15 to 20 knots. A northwest flow of 15 to 20 knots may
persist into early week with Small Craft conditions remaining
possible.

A few stronger thunderstorms are possible Thursday morning and
again Thursday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...Iverson/26
SHORT TERM...FZ
LONG TERM...FZ
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...FZ


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