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000
FXUS61 KCLE 191612
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1212 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER. HEAT AND HUMIDITY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCT CU DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING AND THIS CU WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. TEMPS REMAIN ON
TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH ONLY FEW/SCT CU
INLAND. TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT STILL SEASONABLE
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...EXCEPT UPPER 60S FAR NE LAKESHORE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCH UPWARDS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD.
DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE...BUT BY FRIDAY
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE PUSHING THE MID 80S ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUD COVER THURSDAY...AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
AND START TO TAP INTO SOME RETURN FLOW.

UNFORTUNATELY MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SATURDAY/S WEATHER. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DIPS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACTIVE WITH
CONVECTION. ECMWF ALLOWS THE PERTURBATIONS TOPPING THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST RIDGE AXIS TO BRING THOSE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
NRN OH/NW PA. GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE LOCALLY AND KEEPS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THAT STILL
LINGERS...HAVE PRECIP CHANCES AT 30 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT JUST
KNOW THAT THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE. WHAT IS AGREED UPON FAIRLY
WELL IS THE WARM-UP...MID AND UPPER 80S FOR A BIG PORTION OF THE
AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SUMMER PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES AND THE HEAT NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS IS TYPICAL...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING UPSTREAM IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
A THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A "SLIGHT CHANCE"
FORECAST. THE FORECAST POP BEGINS TO GO BACK UP ON TUESDAY (CHANCE)
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE RIDGE HOLDING FOR ONE MORE DAY BUT WILL NOT
MAKE SUCH SMALL CHANGES ON DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND ANY
SHOWER/STORMS. THIS IS MOSTLY AN ISSUE ON SUNDAY...BUT IN GENERAL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO AND WILL MOVE TO NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. A FEW CLOUDS WILL COME OFF LAKE
ERIE NEAR THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING AND SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP INLAND MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR
BY EVENING AND CLEAR TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...VFR INTO SATURDAY THEN NON-VFR IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH
JUST ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT FOR A BRISK WIND FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AND THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND SHOULD TAKE OVER. IN THE MEANTIME...THE WESTERN BASIN WILL BE A
LITTLE CHOPPY THIS MORNING. SINCE THE WIND WILL BE COMING
DOWN...WILL NOT NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT SOME LINGERING 3
FOOT WAVES LIKELY EARLY. THE LAKE SHOULD CALM DOWN BY TONIGHT. THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. THE OFFSHORE/ONSHORE WIND
GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY. A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE OVER BY THE WEEKEND.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK