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000
FXUS61 KCLE 251031
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
631 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE A A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINE. DIDN`T SAY EARLIER BUT
EXPECT A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT. DIDN`T WANT TO
DOUBLE UP HEADLINES. THINKING THAT TONIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING HOWEVER SO MAY NOT BE NEEDED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. WILL LET DAY CREW EVALUATE.

PREVIOUS...SKIES CLEAR ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA...(EXCEPT FOR
A PATCH OFF LAKE ERIE IN THE NORTHEAST)...BUT TO THE WEST
SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS STREAMING SOUTHEAST FROM
WISCONSIN. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS COULD
GET INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...MOST OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST...DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AIR. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL TODAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS 2 TO 4C BY EVENING...GUIDANCE LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY.
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH WILL GO WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S SUNDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
MONDAY AS 850MB TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND 6C. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THE HIGH
MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TUESDAY 12Z 850MB TEMPS JUST TO
12-14C. AGAIN GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE WITH 70S TO AROUND 80. MAIN
CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE
FRONT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND EVERYWHERE
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO
PRECIP MENTIONED AT THIS POINT. WHILE THERE COULD BE A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...THERE IS NO REAL SYNOPTIC FOCUS. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE RETURNED BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS...WITH 80S AREA
WIDE THE ENTIRE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY WENT A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE...AS GUIDANCE WAS RUNNING COOL WITH THE PREVIOUS
WARM AIRMASS. LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PA AND FAR NE OH
LAKESHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24+ HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT WILL STILL GET A MINOR GUST OR TWO OUT OF ERI AND
YNG THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NNW.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR AVON
POINT EASTWARD. WIND OBS AROUND 15 KNOTS...A FEW SHIPS CAME IN WITH
3 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MORE ACROSS THE
LAKE...THE THREAT FOR 4+ FOOT WAVES WILL DIMINISH. HAVE STARTED OUR
RIP CURRENT PROGRAM...AND WITH THE CONDITIONS FOR TODAY...THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WITHIN THE SMALL CRAFT AREA. REMEMBER
THOUGH LAKE TEMPS ARE STILL ONLY IN THE 50S. NNW FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGH AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY. HIGH
SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT ON THE LAKE. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH TUESDAY. LAKE AT THIS POINT WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE
AS WARM AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THAT FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>012-
     017>019-027-028-036-089.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ013-014-
     020>023-029>033-037-038-047.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN