000
FXUS61 KCLE 151947
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA BORDER
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND
DRAG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND
DRAG A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE SHOWERS ARE JUST NOW MOVING
INTO NW OHIO. SURFACE OBS FROM INDIANA SHOWING MAINLY LIGHT RAIN.
THIS RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN A COUPLE HOURS. MORE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. STRONG LIFT HELPED IN PART BY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOULD CAUSE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY TO NEAR
CATEGORICAL IN THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES AREN`T ALL THAT
STEEP BUT GIVEN DECENT DYNAMICS THINK THAT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER
IS A GOOD BET. OVERALL MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND
HALF INCH OF RAINFALL BY 12Z. THE EVENING WILL START OUT PLEASANT
IN THE EVENING WITH SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE BUT THICK CLOUDS WILL
ARRIVE QUICKLY IN A FEW HOURS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD MAKE IT TO AROUND
60 DEGREES OVERNIGHT WHICH IS WHERE LOWS WILL BE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST. THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LI/S WILL DIP BELOW ZERO WITH
CAPES OF 1000 J/KG OR MORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS MEANS THUNDER
CHANCES SHOULD BE BETTER THAN TONIGHT. THINGS ARE FORECAST TO DRY
OUT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATE TOMORROW. SUNDAY NIGHT COULD END UP
BEING MAINLY DRY BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE
EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE
REGION AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE 80S WITH LOW TO MID 60
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WE COULD END UP SEEING SOME
STRONG STORMS. RIGHT NOW THINK COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE AND WILL HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS. THINGS WILL THEN DRY OUT
QUICKLY EARLY TUESDAY AND WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL BUT A DISTINCT
AIRMASS CHANGE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 70S MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY MID-WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
EAST COAST WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAVE
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE CONDITIONS BUILDING FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S...RECOVERING 3 TO 5 DEGREES
FOR THURSDAY.

WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LONG RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE RIDGE WITH MOISTURE STARTING
TO SNEAK BACK IN FOR SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP HIGHS CONSERVATIVE IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/COVERAGE OF PRECIP
BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ACROSS INDIANA WILL
APPROACH TOL/FDY BY 22Z ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AS THEY CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE DRIER AIR. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BACK TO THE WEST
ACROSS ILLINOIS/IOWA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
WITH SUPPORT FROM A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE NEXT ROUND BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A TEMPO WITH THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 02-07Z AT TOL/FDY/MFD. WILL WAIT TO ADD MORE THAN A VCTS
TO THE OTHER SITES UNTIL TIMING AND EVOLUTION BECOMES A LITTLE
MORE CLEAR. EXPECTING VFR TO CONTINUE UNTIL ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS
ARRIVE TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE RAIN LATE
TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COMPLEX
ON SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NON VFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS
TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO MORE WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE LAKE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT
WINDS AND GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC