000
FXUS61 KCLE 190555
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
155 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
LATE SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE HUMID AIR EARLY IN THE
WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
SHOULD ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THOUGH SOME THIN
HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MORNING. SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
A LINE FROM ASHLAND TO YOUNGSTOWN COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THE DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS
MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING READINGS IN THE MID 50S. TEMPERATURES
AS A RESULT WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SHIFTING BACK NORTH LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE. STILL NO OBVIOUS FORCING MECHANISM ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BENEATH THE BUILDING
RIDGE ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO FAIRLY LOW POPS...WITH
BEST CHANCES FOCUSED SOUTH OF A FDY-YNG LINE. EXPECTING A LITTLE
LESS CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN NW OHIO WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE DRY ON SUNDAY NIGHT...HAVE
ADDED IN A LOW POP TO NW OHIO AS THETA E RIDGE LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
AREA. MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH DETECTING NOCTURNAL SHOWERS IN THIS
PATTERN AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH. WILL CONTINUE THIS SLIGHT CHANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND SLOWLY
PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MOISTENING AIRMASS WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SLOWLY SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA...THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OF THE TROUGH AND TRIES TO MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE. MONDAY
WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED FOR MOST AREAS WITH CHANCES INCREASING ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...THEN DROP
BACK INTO THE LOW 80S ON TUESDAY AS CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE. LOWS WILL BE MILD AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UP...DROPPING INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM AS IT MOVES EAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.  THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS STORM THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. THE BEST LIFT FROM
THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW APPEARED TO BE MORE ON
WEDNESDAY YESTERDAY AND IT LOOKS MORE LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH THIS RUN.  IN EITHER CASE...THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED STORMS THROUGHOUT.  THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THIS MODEL RUN WILL FORCE ME TO PUT SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PATCHY MID CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. ON THE 06Z
TAFS BACKED OFF ON THE FOG AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES AS THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT SPREAD IS HIGH. ANY FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY
AND MAINLY WELL INLAND OF LAKE ERIE AND SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT CLEAR CUT.
MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...SO EXPECTING PLENTY
OF CUMULUS INLAND OF THE LAKE. THE CAPE DOES GET HIGHER TODAY AND
WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA CONTINUED WITH VCTS AT MFD...CAK AND
YNG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...IT
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON.  A
FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE 12Z BUFKIT RUN SHOWS A POCKET OF 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS
WITHIN 1KFT OF THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH 00Z. WITH
THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FETCH WAVE HEIGHTS COULD REACH 3 TO 5 FEET
OVER THE WEST. EVEN THOUGH THE CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL...I WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE EVENING.  WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.  A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL SETUP
ON SUNDAY BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAKER AND THEREFORE
THE WINDS NOT AS STRONG.  I DO NOT ANTICIPATE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...GARNET