000
FXUS61 KCLE 160741
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
341 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON TODAY AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. TRIPLE POINT IS QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS
SRN LOWER MI WITH CONVECTION IN A NORTH/SOUTH LINE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT AND AN EAST/WEST LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE
NORTH/SOUTH LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...LIKELY DEVELOPING
ADDITIONAL CELLS TO THE SOUTH AS IT DOES. THE COLD FRONTAL BAND
WILL ALSO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THE AREA THIS MORNING...TAPERING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL NO BE TOO
QUICK TO COMPLETELY END THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWS ACROSS THE INLAND
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE
AREA SO EARLY ON WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS SE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT HOWEVER DROPPED THE MENTION OF PRECIP AS DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES IN. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODELS BRING
THE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES TO THE VICINITY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL BEGIN MONDAY DRY BUT WITH THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY EVENING THE FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE NAM
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE SIMILAR BUILDING
DRIER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER WHILE
KEEPING ANY SURFACE LOW AND THE DEEP MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE SREF/GFS HERE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT...TAPERING FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO DRY AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE FLATTENING TO SOME DEGREE. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS TO NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE
AND THEREFORE WARMER AND DRIER. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND FLATTENS
THE RIDGE MORE AND ALLOWS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO TOP THE RIDGE AND
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD BRING WITH IT SHRA/TS AND
LIKELY COOLER TEMPS DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. ALL IN ALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...BUT MAY GET WARM IF WE TREND
TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AT H8. WHILE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY...SLOWLY BRING UP PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLE BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH IT WILL BE
DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS HIT OR MISS AS PRIMARY
BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE CROSSING AT A DIURNAL MINIMA. HAVE VCTS
ACROSS THE WEST FOR A TIME THIS MORNING IF ONGOING TS CAN PERSIST.
MAY NEED THUNDER FOR CAK/YNG THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT WILL BE YET
TO PASS AND AREA MAY DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. FOR NOW JUST
HAVE VCSH. WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH LOCAL IFR
WITHIN ANY TS. A WEST WIND...GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING IN BR AND THEN AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN A LITTLE FURTHER AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS ONTARIO
CANADA. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LAKE TODAY WITH
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM. FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME 4 FOOT
WAVES ACROSS THE EAST END WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. WILL HOLD
BACK ON A SMALL CRAFT ADV...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR
DEVELOPMENTS/CHANGES. NEXT FRONT ON THE HEELS OF TODAY/S AND WILL
CROSS THE LAKE 24-30 HOURS LATER...MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE REALIZED ON LAKE ERIE FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WED-THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN