000
FXUS61 KCLE 181029
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
629 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SINK SOUTH TO SOUTHERN OHIO TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING COOL BUT FAIR WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVER THE COURSE
OF THE WEEKEND...SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL FINALLY MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD FLUSHING THE FINAL COLD FRONT
SOUTH TODAY...TAKING WITH IT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF 6 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR
EDINBORO IN NW PA TO FINDLAY. UNTIL THE FRONT COMPLETELY CLEARS
THERE WILL REMAIN SOME CHANCE AT A SHOWER/TS. A FEW SHOWERS STILL
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
OVERHEAD AND H8 FRONT LAGGING. SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS MN THIS
MORNING SHOULD PASS TOO FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO
GENERATE/INVIGORATE CONVECTION INTO/IN OUR AREA. WILL ALLOW THE
HIGH TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE. AREAS TO THE SOUTH MAY STILL GET NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE WILL
CLEAR THE SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH IMPULSE
TRACKING ALONG THE OH RIVER TO WV RETAINING SOME CLOUDS INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. WILL HAVE ALL AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT REGION IN STORE FOR A STRETCH
OF PLEASANT AND FAIR WEATHER WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY AND WARMTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST BEGINS TO
SHIFT OUR WAY WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL TAKE TEMPS TO
AROUND 80...IN TIME FOR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
AREA.  IN GENERAL EXPECT INCREASING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT GETTING OBSCURED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BUT BELIEVE IT
EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SERN LWR MI ACRS LAKE ERIE TO JUST SOUTH OF
KBUF. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER
AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST FROM NORTHWEST PA SW INTO NERN OHIO THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. CONCERNED THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO POP UP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF PRECIP IN THE TAFS THROUGH 10-12Z IN ALL BUT KTOL EITHER
IN A TEMPO GROUP OR VCSH. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE EARLY AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE FRONT THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN LAKES. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TO NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT SHOULD THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15
KNOTS SATURDAY. OTHER THAN EARLY TODAY MAINLY EAST...THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK