Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1144 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK NUMBER 5...

...THE FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
MARCH...

A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS OCCASIONAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR
WITH WATER LEVELS HAVING MINOR IMPACTS. THIS IS THE FIFTH ISSUANCE
OF THE WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND. FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BIWEEKLY
DURING THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...SNOW PACK DEPTH AND
WATER CONTENT...ICE COVERAGE ON AREA RIVERS AND THE LAKE...SOIL
MOISTURE...AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

...OVERVIEW...
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF MARCH.
AS IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY MARCH...MOST OF THE AREA HAS A MINIMAL
SNOWPACK. AT THE TIME OF THIS ISSUANCE THE STREAMFLOWS ARE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS.A SPRINGLIKE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A COLD SNAP FOLLOWED
BY TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. DURING TRANSITION PERIODS IT IS
NOT UNCOMMON TO GET A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WHICH COULD QUICKLY TURN TO
FLOODING. CUMULATIVELY THE FACTORS AS THEY STAND ACROSS THE REGION
AND IN THE SHORT AND LONG TERM FORECAST SUPPORT A NORMAL FLOOD
RISK.

...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL INTO THIS WEEKEND
THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK. WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
COULD PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR MODERATE RAINFALL IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THE CHANCES FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE MINIMAL.

...SNOW COVER...
AT THE TIME OF THIS ISSUANCE ANY SNOWPACK WAS LIMITED TO A LIGHT
COATING OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH ADDITIONAL
SNOW WAS FORECASTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE WARM GROUND
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE ACCUMULATION DIFFICULT. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL MELT OFF ENTIRELY NEXT WEEK.

...ICE COVERAGE...
ICE COVERAGE HAS DECREASED AGAIN OVER THE AREA WITH NO ICE
CONCERNS ON AREA RIVERS. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 32 DEGREES
AS MEASURED BY RIVER GAUGES.

...CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...
STREAMFLOWS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING HIGH AFTER A RECENT RAIN
EVENT. MOST AREA ARE SEEING STREAMFLOWS IN THE 50-75
PERCENTILE. OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE AS
DRY AIR SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

RESERVOIRS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR WINTER LEVELS WITH THE MAHONING AND
BEAVER DAMS REPORTING WINTER FLOOD CAPACITY LEVELS AROUND 5%. A
FEW DAMS IN THE FRENCH CREEK AND THE MOHICAN BASIN ARE REPORTING
AS HIGH AS 25% BUT ARE PROJECTED TO GRADUALLY RELEASE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK.

...SOIL TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE...
THERE HAS BEEN A WIDESPREAD WARMING OF THE TOPSOILS OVER THE LAST
FEW WEEKS WITH MOST STATIONS REPORTING TEMPERATURES AROUND 34F.
THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ARE NEAR THE LAKESHORE IN PEMBERVILLE
AND ASHTABULA WHERE THE 5CM TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 31F. THE BRIEF
COOL DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL ALLOW TOPSOIL
TEMPERATURES TO DROP A DEGREE OR TWO. HOWEVER NEXT WEEK`S WARM-UP
WILL SUPPORT A THAWING OF MOST TOPSOILS. SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR OR
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT MUCH CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

...LONG TERM OUTLOOKS...
THE EL NINO IN THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE SPRING MONTHS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION MAY PREVAIL FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
FEBRUARY.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
NO ANTICIPATED STORM SYSTEMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
WILL BE ISSUED ON MARCH 17TH.


$$



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