Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1035 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...

...THE FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH MID JANUARY...

A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS OCCASIONAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH
WATER LEVELS HAVING MINOR IMPACTS. THIS IS THE FIRST ISSUANCE OF THE
WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CLEVELAND. FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BIWEEKLY DURING THE
WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND ASSESS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...SNOW PACK DEPTH AND
WATER CONTENT...ICE COVERAGE ON AREA RIVERS AND THE LAKE...SOIL
MOISTURE...AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

...OVERVIEW...
A RECORD WARM DECEMBER HAS LEFT THE REGION WITH LITTLE IF ANY
SNOWPACK. A SMALL AREA OF NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA RECEIVED SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE LAST WEEK. HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER PRODUCED SOME MINOR
FLOODING BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WERE COMMON THE FIRST WEEK OF THE
NEW YEAR.

...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FOR MILD TEMPERATURES AND SOME RAIN
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR GENERAL
SNOWFALLS BUT THE COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE STILL UNFROZEN LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS
THE SNOWBELT REGIONS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

...SNOW COVER...
AT THE TIME OF THIS ISSUANCE THE ONLY SNOWPACK WAS SEVERAL INCHES
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THIS REGION IS MINIMAL AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
ALONG WITH CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH THE SNOWCOVER UNTIL THE
NEXT CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...ICE COVERAGE...
LITTLE IF ANY ICE HAS FORMED ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AND WOULD
HAVE NO IMPACT ON WATER FLOWS. ICE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE NEXT WEEK
WITH THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

...CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...
ALL RIVERS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING NEAR TO A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL STREAM FLOWS. THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL RESERVOIRS ARE
RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE IDEAL WINTER POOL LEVELS.

...SOIL MOISTURE...
SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AND
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW
TO NEAR NORMAL. A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WOULD KEEP ANY NEW
SNOWFALL IN PLACE THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON JANUARY 21ST.
$$
BM



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