Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1057 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK NUMBER 3...

...THE FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH MOST OF FEBRUARY...

A BELOW NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS THE THREAT FOR MODERATE OR
MAJOR FLOODING IS LOW. OCCASIONAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH WATER
LEVELS HAVING MINOR IMPACTS. THIS IS THE THIRD ISSUANCE OF THE
WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CLEVELAND. FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BIWEEKLY DURING
THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...SNOW PACK DEPTH AND
WATER CONTENT...ICE COVERAGE ON AREA RIVERS AND THE LAKE...SOIL
MOISTURE...AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

...OVERVIEW...
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK IS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH LATE FEBRUARY DUE TO
MINIMAL SNOWPACK...LOW STREAMFLOWS...AND NO NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
EVENTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
A DRAMATIC COOL DOWN EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ARCTIC
AIR EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR A FEW DAYS. FOR OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT ONLY MINIMAL
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE ARCTIC BLAST.

...SNOW COVER...
SNOW COVER HAS BEEN REDUCED TO JUST SHADY LOCATIONS IN THE
SNOWBELT. THERE WATER CONTENT IN THE SNOWPACK IS UNDER A HALF AN
INCH FOR ALL AREAS. THIS SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ELIMINATED OVER THE
WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED...MAINLY IN LAKE
EFFECT...MIDWAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW THE SNOWBELT CAN EXPECT AT THIS TIME.

...ICE COVERAGE...
ICE COVERAGE IS MINIMAL IF NOT ELIMINATED ACROSS ALL AREA RIVERS.
THE MOUTH OF THE RIVERS REMAIN OPEN TO LAKE ICE.

...CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...
RIVER LEVELS ARE BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME STATIONS IN THE 10TH
PERCENTILE. THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS SOILS
FREEZE AND PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW. RESERVOIRS ARE REPORTING
NEAR NORMAL WINTER POOLS WITH LESS THAN 5% OF WINTER FLOOD
CAPACITY USED.

...SOIL TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE...
TOPSOILS TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM 5 AND 10 CM IN ASHTABULA AND
MANSFIELD ARE ALL ABOVE FREEZING. IT IS BELIEVED IN NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THE SURFACE IS MOSTLY FROZEN...HOWEVER THIS IS NOT
TRUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP WILL
LIKELY CAUSE THE TOPSOIL TO FREEZE. SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR OR A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT MUCH CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

...LONG TERM OUTLOOKS...
THE EL NINO IN THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WINTER. THIS PATTERN
SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. NO ANTICIPATED STORM SYSTEMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED. THIS COMBINED WITH NO NOTABLE SNOWPACK AND
BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOWS WILL KEEP THE FLOOD RISK LOW. THE NEXT
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FEBRUARY 18TH.


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