Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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OHC005-007-033-035-043-055-063-075-077-083-085-093-095-099-101-
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222015-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
301 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

...THE FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH EARLY FEBRUARY...

A BELOW NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS THE THREAT FOR MODERATE OR
MAJOR FLOODING IS LOW. OCCASIONAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH WATER
LEVELS HAVING MINOR IMPACTS. THIS IS THE SECOND ISSUANCE OF THE
WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CLEVELAND. FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BIWEEKLY DURING
THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...SNOW PACK DEPTH AND
WATER CONTENT...ICE COVERAGE ON AREA RIVERS AND THE LAKE...SOIL
MOISTURE...AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

...OVERVIEW...
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK IS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY FEBRUARY DUE TO
MINIMAL SNOWPACK...LOW STREAMFLOWS...AND NO NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
EVENTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AND
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM LATE JANUARY INTO EARLY
FEBRUARY. WITH LESS ARCTIC AIR MOVING OVER THE LAKE THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS REDUCED. THE LONG TERM PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOKS ARE FOR BELOW NORMAL.

...SNOW COVER...
THE SNOWPACK OVER THE REGION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SNOWBELT IN
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THIS
REGION VARY FROM 3 INCHES TO AS MUCH AS 13 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER TERRAIN OF GEAUGA, ERIE, AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES. THE WATER EQUIVALENT IN THIS SNOW PACK IS UNDER 1 INCH
WITH BASIN AVERAGES AROUND A HALF AN INCH. THE REST OF THE REGION
HAS UNDER AN INCH OF SNOWPACK WHICH IS NEGLIGIBLE TO ANY FLOOD
RISK. THE FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS FOR NO APPRECIABLE
SNOWFALL EVENTS. LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME
TO TIME BUT NO NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...ICE COVERAGE...
ICE COVERAGE HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS AREA RIVERS DUE TO AN
ARCTIC COLD SNAP IN MID JANUARY. THE ICE IS NOT THICK ENOUGH TO
CAUSE JAMMING AT THIS TIME. THE FORECAST WILL SUPPORT MINIMAL ICE
GROWTH OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. ICE HAS DEVELOPED OVER SHALLOW
PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE BUT IS NOT BLOCKING THE MOUTH OF ANY RIVERS.

...CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...
ALL RIVERS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING NEAR TO A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL STREAM FLOWS. THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE IDEAL WINTER POOL
LEVELS. FLOOD STORAGE USE REMAINS BELOW 5%.

...SOIL TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE...
A RECENT COLD SNAP HAS CAUSED THE TOPSOIL TO FREEZE. GROUND
THERMOMETERS SHOW TEMPERATURES 33-35F AT THE 5CM DEPTH. THIS COULD
SUPPORT SOME ABSORPTION IF THE TOP LAYER THAWS AHEAD OF A RAIN
EVENT. SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION AND NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

...LONG TERM OUTLOOKS...
THE EL NINO IN THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WINTER. THIS PATTERN
SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WILL BE BELOW  NORMAL.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REDUCE THE
SNOWPACK AND THE FLOOD RISK OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FEBRUARY 4TH.


$$



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