Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
000
FGUS71 KCLE 201902
ESFCLE
OHC005-007-033-035-043-055-063-075-077-083-085-093-095-099-101-
103-117-123-133-139-143-147-151-153-155-169-173-175-PAC039-049-
031915-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
302 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014


...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK NUMBER 6...

...THERE IS AN ABOVE NORMAL RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
ELSEWHERE THERE IS A NEAR NORMAL RISK THROUGH EARLY APRIL...

AN ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS WIDESPREAD FLOODING COULD
OCCUR WITH WATER LEVELS POSSIBLY REACHING MODERATE OR MAJOR
IMPACTS.

THIS IS THE SIXTH ISSUANCE OF THE WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND. FLOOD
OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BIWEEKLY DURING THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING
TO SUMMARIZE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...SNOW PACK DEPTH AND
WATER CONTENT...ICE COVERAGE ON AREA RIVERS AND THE LAKE...SOIL
MOISTURE...AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

...OVERVIEW...
BRIEF THAWS DURING THE LAST TWO WEEKS HAVE SUFFICIENTLY REDUCED
THE AREA SNOWPACK AND HELPED THIN THE RIVER AND LAKE ICE COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE GROUND TO
THAW. THE GROUND REMAINS FROZEN UPWARDS OF A FOOT DEEP...PREVENTING
ABSORPTION OF RUNOFF. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WHEN
COMPARED TO PAST YEARS MAKE THE FLOOD RISK NEAR NORMAL. THE
EXCEPTION IS FOR COMMUNITIES ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS THAT FLOW
INTO LAKE ERIE. THE CONTINUED ICE COVERAGE ON THE LAKE AND SOME OF
THE RIVERS WILL KEEP A HEIGHTENED RISK OF ICE JAMS THROUGH EARLY
APRIL.

...CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...
MOST RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE REGION ARE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WINTER
POOL LEVELS. GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL. WATER SUPPLY
SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS SPRING.

...SNOW COVER...
AT THE TIME OF THIS ISSUANCE...MOST GROUND COVER IN THE REGION WAS
EXPOSED DUE TO A REDUCTION IN THE SNOWPACK. SNOW PILES LINGER
ESPECIALLY IN SHADY AREAS...BUT THE WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE
REMAINING SNOW IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE FLOODING OR CONTRIBUTE
NOTABLY IN THE EVENT OF A FLOOD.

...ICE COVERAGE...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ICE COVERAGE REMAINS ACROSS LAKE ERIE`S
WESTERN BASIN. THE ICE CONCENTRATION IN THIS REGION WILL TAKE
SEVERAL MORE THAWS TO BREAK UP. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF LAKE ERIE ARE SHOWING BREAKS AND THINNING OF THE ICE SHIELDS.
THE NORTHERN RIVERS HAVE OPENED UP NOTABLY IN THE LAST WEEK WITH
MANY RUNNING CLEAR TO THE LAKE. THE REMAINING LAKE ICE HAS BLOCKED
THE ICE FLOES FROM FLUSHING OUT OF THE WESTERN RIVERS. THE ROTTING OF
THE ICE OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS WILL ALLOW FOR EASIER BREAKUP IN
THE EVENT OF AN ICE JAM. THE ICE THICKNESSES ARE AVERAGING 4 TO 6
INCHES...A NOTABLE DECREASE SINCE EARLY MARCH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY APRIL...BUT
THE LONGER DAYS AND HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THE
ICE. OVERALL BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOWS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD
SUGGESTS THAT EVEN IF AN ICE JAM OCCURS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
IMPACTS WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE RIVERBED. ICE JAM PRONE AREAS SUCH
AS BRIDGE ABUTMENTS AND BENDS IN THE RIVERS SHOULD BE MONITORED
AND THE NWS ALERTED SHOULD JAMMING BE OBSERVED.

ICE JAMS LOCATIONS AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE:
*GRAND RIVER AT PAINESVILLE FROM THE ST. CLAIRE STREET WEST OF
 RICHMOND STREET TO THE LAKE
*VERMILION RIVER AT VERMILION ICE REMAINS IN MILL HOLLOWS
*MAUMEE RIVER IN TOLEDO TO THE LAKE


...SOIL MOISTURE...
SEASONAL FROZEN GROUND CAN HAVE A VERY SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON THE
AMOUNT OF RUNOFF. LACK OF VEGETATION DURING THE WINTER...SHALLOW
SNOW COVER...AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES PRODUCE OPTIMAL
CONDITIONS FOR DEEP FROST PENETRATION. A GROUND TEMPERATURE
READING IN SPRINGSBORO PENNSYLVANIA SHOWS A FROST DEPTH OF 10
INCHES...AND A SITE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO SHOWS A DEPTH OF 6 INCHES.

...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S 8-
14 DAY OUTLOOKS SUGGESTS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...LONG TERM OUTLOOKS...
THE ENSO CYCLE IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
AN EL NINO THIS SUMMER AND FALL...BUT IT IS NOT PLAY A NOTABLE
ROLE ON THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE U.S. THIS SPRING.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S FORECASTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SPRING ARE FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...AND NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS IS NEAR NORMAL EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN
OHIO WHERE THERE REMAINS AN ELEVATED RISK DUE TO LAKE AND RIVER
ICE. IN THE LONG TERM THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE HOWEVER THAT MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM
SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF
TIME...IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF
FLOODING.

ANOTHER WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
8 AM FRIDAY APRIL 4.

REAL TIME RIVER INFORMATION AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS ALONG RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/CLE/ AND CLICKING THE /RIVERS AND LAKES
AHPS/ LINK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE.

FOR THE LONG-RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO
NORMAL AT SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS...
REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC AND CLICK ON THE 90-DAY RIVER
OUTLOOK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE PAGE. CLICK ON FLOOD CHC VS
NORMAL TO VIEW THE RISK OF FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL.


$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.