Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

000
FXUS01 KWBC 181948
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

VALID 00Z SUN MAY 19 2013 - 00Z TUE MAY 21 2013

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH AN EMBEDDED AREA
OF MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...

...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
CENTRAL CAROLINAS...

A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL DEVELOP INTO A
CLOSES UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY.
 A MUCH WEAKER UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN OHIO WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY MONDAY.  THE ENERGY WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST,
TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND THE MID-ATLANTIC.  RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY.  OVERNIGHT SUNDAY,
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL MOVE OVER MAINE
PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ENTER INTO THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES, THAT WILL
AID IN DEVELOPING THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED.  AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES INLAND, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
ON SATURDAY EVENING, BECOMING RAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, REMAINING
MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH MONDAY OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.
ADDITIONALLY, ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

UNDER THE DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH MODERATE RAIN, WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, MOVING INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING.  THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MODERATE RAIN, WILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING.  SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, ALSO BY MONDAY.  IN ADDITION, AREAS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.


ZIEGENFELDER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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