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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
000
FGUS73 KBIS 281808
ESFBIS
NDC001-007-011-015-021-025-029-031-033-037-041-043-045-047-051-053-
055-057-059-061-065-083-085-087-089-093-103-105-301700-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
108 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
...FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...
This Flood and Water Resources Outlook is for the James and
Missouri basins of North Dakota, covering the period of 30 March
through 28 June, 2024. This is a routine monthly issuance of flood
probabilities for NWS forecast locations. These probabilities are
issued on, or around, the fourth Thursday of every month.
The following message has four sections. The first provides some
text on the highlights of this outlook and conditions affecting the
local hydrology. The second section gives the current and historical
risks of flooding as determined by the Ensemble Streamflow Forecast
model of the National Weather Service. The third section gives the
current probabilities for reaching flood stage at the listed
forecast locations. And finally, the fourth section covers the risk
of the river sites falling below the listed stages.
...Flood Outlook Highlights...
A lack of appreciable snow accumulation and an overall very warm
winter season has the area entering April with nominal snow on the
countryside. At this point in time the risk of widespread flooding
is considered below normal to well below normal going forward into
early summer. The risk of flooding depicted in the below tables is
proportional to the risk of heavy spring rains, in particular the
advent of the summer thunderstorm season.
Perhaps the greater risk going into the growing season continues to
be the long-term trend of below normal precipitation. Given the lack
of substantial water in the existing snowpack, increased and
expanded drought designations are a real concern going forward
without timely spring rains.
...Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers...
In western North Dakota the Missouri and Yellowstone rivers above
Lake Sakakawea are below normal for this time of year. A lack of
significant snowpack in the mountainous headwaters area of Montana
suggests overall runoff will be well below normal along the Missouri
and Yellowstone rivers. However, a planned "Test Flow" release out
of Fort Peck on the Missouri River to help endangered species should
cause a rise to near flood stage for the Missouri River near
Williston.
...Snowpack Conditions...
The snowpack across the Missouri and James River basins of North
Dakota
never attained a near-normal state over the past winter. Both a lack
of received snow and unseasonably warm periods this winter kept the
overall snowpack well below normal. There are wide areas of both the
Missouri and James River basins of North Dakota that currently
contain snow. However, that snowpack generally ranges from less than
one-quarter of an inch of water to no more than seven tenths of an
inch of water. In no way is this amount of water on the ground a
significant contributor to the existing flood risks.
...Current Drought Conditions...
Small improvements to the drought extent and designations have
recently been made across the state. These improvements though were
intended to better reflect current conditions and should not be
interpreted as the beginning of a trend for more improvements. It
will take at least normal amounts of timely rains going forward to
prevent expansion and degradation of the current drought afflicting
North Dakota.
...Reservoirs and Natural Wetlands...
Despite an overall snow deficit across most of the state this
winter, enhanced runoff due to a wet and frozen ground surface has
been remarkable at times. Most small livestock dams and natural
wetlands are near normal for early spring water levels. Larger water
impoundments though are at greater risk of below normal water levels
going through late spring and into summer.
...Soil Conditions...
Soil moisture values across the Missouri and James basins are
a mixture of somewhat above normal in parts of western and central
North Dakota, to well below normal in parts of the James River basin
and eastern North Dakota.
...Weather Outlook...
The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day outlook favors near normal
temperature and precipitation. This evolves into a near normal
temperature with above normal precipitation for the 8-14 day
outlooks. Looking out even farther, the weeks 3-4, one-month, and
three month outlooks for April, May and June generally favor above
normal temperatures with equal chances for above normal, near
normal, or below normal precipitation.
...Ice Conditions...
Ice is quickly waning across most of North Dakota with most rivers
now being at least mostly ice free after those streams experienced
runoff in late winter. Wetlands, ponds, lakes, and larger reservoirs
are still largely covered in ice of varying thickness and quality.
In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stage
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is greater than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/30/2024 - 06/28/2024
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Pipestem
Pingree 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
:James River
Grace City 12.0 14.0 15.0 : <5 15 <5 9 <5 8
LaMoure 14.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 17 <5 8 <5 <5
:Missouri River
Williston 22.0 24.0 26.0 : 9 42 5 31 <5 9
:Cannonball River
Regent 22.0 24.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5
:Cannonball River
Breien 10.0 20.0 23.0 : 7 52 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Beaver Creek
Linton 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 45 <5 30 <5 13
:Little Muddy River
Williston 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 8 63 <5 23 <5 7
:Little Missouri River
Marmarth 18.0 23.0 30.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Medora 15.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 21 <5 8 <5 6
Watford City 20.0 24.0 30.0 : <5 11 <5 5 <5 <5
:Knife River
Manning 15.0 17.0 20.0 : <5 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Spring Creek
Zap 14.0 18.0 20.0 : 8 21 6 11 <5 8
:Knife River
Hazen 21.0 24.0 25.0 : 13 34 8 25 5 20
:Heart River
Mandan 27.0 33.0 38.0 : <5 19 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Apple Creek
Menoken 15.0 16.0 17.0 : 26 61 17 55 <5 34
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/30/2024 - 06/28/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Pipestem
Pingree 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.7 7.4 9.1 11.1
:James River
Grace City 4.3 4.3 4.3 5.0 6.1 6.5 8.5
LaMoure 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.3 9.0 11.3 13.3
:Missouri River
Williston 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.4 20.2 21.8 23.9
:Cannonball River
Regent 5.2 5.2 5.7 6.7 7.7 8.8 9.6
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh 1.3 1.3 2.2 3.4 4.3 5.3 5.7
:Cannonball River
Breien 2.6 2.8 4.7 5.8 7.9 9.7 10.1
:Beaver Creek
Linton 4.3 4.4 4.9 5.6 6.6 10.5 11.8
:Little Muddy River
Williston 4.3 4.3 5.0 7.0 8.5 9.3 11.1
:Little Missouri River
Marmarth 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.9 5.1 7.9 11.0
Medora 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.7 5.5 8.4 11.5
Watford City 7.1 7.1 7.2 8.4 10.8 12.9 15.0
:Knife River
Manning 6.4 6.4 6.6 8.3 9.5 12.6 13.3
:Spring Creek
Zap 5.1 5.2 6.1 7.4 9.2 11.1 19.1
:Knife River
Hazen 2.7 3.0 6.4 9.8 15.6 23.4 25.2
:Heart River
Mandan 11.6 12.1 14.3 16.2 20.2 23.5 26.1
:Apple Creek
Menoken 6.3 6.5 7.3 12.0 15.1 16.7 16.9
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for
the valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/30/2024 - 06/28/2024
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Pipestem
Pingree 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1
:James River
Grace City 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
LaMoure 7.8 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.8
:Missouri River
:Cannonball River
Regent 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0
:Cannonball River
Breien 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1
:Beaver Creek
Linton 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
:Little Muddy River
Williston 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2
:Little Missouri River
Marmarth 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9
Medora 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
Watford City 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7
:Knife River
Manning 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.0 6.0
:Spring Creek
Zap 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
:Knife River
Hazen 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2
:Heart River
Mandan 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.1 8.8 8.6 8.5
:Apple Creek
Menoken 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.1 3.4 3.3 3.2
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range
of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range
planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic
forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/bis for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued by the end of April.
$$
Schlag
- National Weather Service
- Central Region Headquarters Regional Headquarters
- 7220 NW 101st Terrace
- Kansas City, MO 64153
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- Page last modified: Sep 19th, 2023 19:10 UTC