741
FXUS64 KCRP 020725
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
225 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A largely uneventful forecast is expected during the short term
period.

Regional radar imagery indicates that deep convection has
remained well north of San Antonio tonight. Therefore, the
likelihood of thunderstorms across the Victoria Crossroads early
this morning is very low (less than 20%). The only other low
chance for precipitation will be Friday afternoon over La Salle
and Webb Counties. This low chance will be dependent on whether
there will be sufficient forcing from mesoscale boundaries to
support the development of robust updrafts.

Warm temperatures and abundant low level moisture will result in
maximum apparent temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to low 100s
today and Friday. These conditions will be a precursor to the
increasing risk for heat related impacts next week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Key Messages:

- Increasing risk of heat related impacts next week.

Mainly dry conditions are expected through the long term period as
moisture will be confined to a shallow surface layer...that will
gradually get even more shallow as we head into next week.  For
Saturday, there is still the potential for an isolated storm coming
out of the Sierra Madre and across into the Rio Grande Plains,
however chances are low (10-20%). Beyond Saturday, winds above
the surface shifting more to the south and southwest will bring
drier conditions in the lower levels to leave only moisture
confined to only within a couple thousand feet of the
surface...and in the upper levels (maintaining some high cloud
cover). This drier layer will also result in warming temperatures
through next week. We`ll start the week on Monday with highs
around 100 west and in the upper 80s and lower 90s east. We`ll
quickly warm above 100 west through mid- week with highs
approaching 110 by Thursday. If this verifies it would be our
first high temperatures above 100 for the season. The risk of heat
related illness will increase to moderate to high by mid-week,
especially for vulnerable populations. While lower RH is expected
west to keep heat index values near the temps, farther east heat
index values will likely top 100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Storms have developed well north of the area this evening.
However, there is abundant moisture in place across S TX that
could interact with the tail end of the upper disturbance that is
moving across Central TX overnight. There is a very low chance for
convection to impact VCT during the early morning hours.
Otherwise, MVFR conditions are expected across S TX overnight
through Thursday morning. Brief VFR conditions are expected by
early to mid afternoon across VCT, CRP, and ALI, then quickly
becoming MVFR once again by early Thursday evening. MVFR
conditions are forecast to persist across COT through much of the
TAF period, while VFR conditions are expected across LRD by
Thursday mid afternoon and then persisting through Thursday
evening. Surface winds are progged to remain 5-15kt overnight
before becoming gusty by mid to late Thursday morning into
Thursday afternoon with gusts between 20-25kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A mainly weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through the
weekend and into early next week. The persistent onshore flow will
result in seas of 3-6 feet continuing into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    87  76  89  75 /  10  10  10  10
Victoria          87  73  87  73 /  30  10  10  10
Laredo            95  75  98  75 /   0   0  20  10
Alice             90  74  92  73 /  10  10  10  10
Rockport          85  75  85  75 /  10  10  10  10
Cotulla           92  75  97  75 /  10  10  20  10
Kingsville        88  75  90  74 /  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       85  77  86  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH/91
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...TE