Text Products for AFD Issued by CRP

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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FXUS64 KCRP 212346
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
646 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Key Messages:

- Cooler conditions tonight through Monday night.

- A few showers expected again Monday morning.

Isolated showers with an occasional lightning strike continues this
afternoon across the southern portions of S TX, from Laredo to
Baffin Bay. Rain chances diminish this evening, but do not quite go
away as weak embedded short waves are progged to continue moving
generally eastward across the region through Monday. Sufficient
moisture will remain across the southern areas of the CWA with PWATs
forecast to be between 1.3-1.5 inches. Rain chances will be low (10-
20%) due to a mid/upper level ridge building into the area. Rain
chances are expected to end by late Monday afternoon or evening as
the ridge brings a drier mid level environment to the area. This
will also lead to decreasing cloud cover across S TX Monday night.

As for temperatures, conditions will be cooler tonight in the wake
of this morning`s cold front. Lows are expected to drop into the 50s
across most of S TX with temps in the low 60s along the coast. Highs
Monday will be in the low to mid 70s. An onshore flow is forecast to
return by Monday afternoon, which will begin to bring a warmer
airmass back across S TX. Lows by monday night will still be in the
50s and 60s, but 3-5 degrees warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Upper level ridging will continue to build on Tuesday while a
surface high pressure centered over the Southeastern CONUS allows
for the implementation of onshore flow and increased inland moisture
return. A few showers (10-15% chance) will be possible Wednesday
over the waters as a result of the higher moisture return coupled
with a weak mid-level disturbance on the eastern edge of the ridge.
The ridge will give way to the next upper level trough traversing
into the Southern Plains by late week. This system will allow for
the possibility of a few showers Friday into next weekend. However,
like the last forecast package, probabilities are still on the lower
side (less than 10%). Development and subsequent deepening of the
surface low of the aforementioned system will lead to periods of
gusty winds by late in the week as the pressure gradient increases
across the CWA, with a medium chance for wind gusts greater than 30
mph.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail across area terminals through
the cycle, with a few brief periods on MVFR to IFR conditions in
between owing to nearby shower activity. Winds will be light and
variable through early Monday morning, then gradually shift to the
east and southeast throughout the day. There is another slight
chances for showers on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

There is a low (10-20%) chance of showers Monday, mainly south of
Port Aransas. Rain chances will end through Monday afternoon as
drier air moves into the area. Strong northerly winds will begin to
decrease this evening, becoming weak to moderate by early Monday
morning. Although winds are expected to drop below advisory levels,
the seas will take longer to subside. The Small Craft Advisory will
remain in effect for the nearshore waters through the evening and
the offshore waters through early Monday morning. Weak to moderate
winds are expected to become onshore by Monday afternoon and
evening. Weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through most
of this week. A few showers (10-15% chance) will be possible
Wednesday over the waters as a result of higher moisture return
coupled with a weak mid-level disturbance. By late next Friday
into early Saturday morning, southeasterly flow will reach
moderate to strong levels, which could lead to elevated seas and
therefore Small Craft Advisory conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Fire weather concerns are not expected Monday as humidity will
remain above 40% area-wide along with weak to moderate winds. No
fire weather concerns are expected through the end of the week as
relative humidity increases and winds remain below 20 mph. By next
weekend an approaching system will lead to drier conditions
across the western CWA with relative humidity values falling to
around 30%. However, winds should remain calm enough to negate any
elevated fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    59  75  62  81 /  10  10   0   0
Victoria          51  75  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            59  73  62  83 /  10  10   0   0
Alice             56  75  58  82 /  10  20   0   0
Rockport          61  75  65  80 /   0  10   0   0
Cotulla           57  75  60  84 /   0  10   0   0
Kingsville        58  73  59  80 /  10  20   0   0
Navy Corpus       64  75  67  80 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ250-255.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...ANM/88
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
