669
FXUS63 KEAX 091124
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers with a lightning strike or two are expected to build
into northern and eastern Missouri this afternoon into this evening.

- Drier with seasonal conditions expected Friday and Saturday.

- Unsettled weather pattern returns late weekend into early next
  week, with the potential for heavy rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Low level cold air advection in the wake of cold front/low pressure
system that moved through the region yesterday is keeping the lower
atmosphere slightly mixed leading to temperatures in the mid and
upper 50s.  Unique disorganized flow in the upper level jet around
the remnants of a cut off low across the Northern Plains will shove
a shortwave southwest from eastern Minnesota this morning into
northern Missouri by this evening.  As this feature works into the
region, expect increasing cloud cover and the potential for showers
and thunderstorms.  Instability will be very limited, so not expect
anything more than garden variety shower/general thunder. Coverage
will mainly be confined to northern and eastern Missouri, with
rainfall amounts of a tenth of an inch or less.

Fairly pleasant spring time conditions are expected Friday into
Saturday as surface ridge works south along the western High Plains.
Temperatures will be fairly seasonal with highs in the low to mid
70s and lows in the lower 50s. As this system moves along the
eastern Rockies, a portion of the cutoff low across the Northern
Plains reorganizes over the dessert southwest and builds back
towards the region on Sunday night into Monday.  With this
disturbance returning the central US, chance for showers and
thunderstorms increases. While the shear looks weaker, precipitable
water values surge to near 1.25" (near the 90th percentile) Sunday
into Monday potential leading to efficient rain producing storms.
This is supported with deep saturation through the troposphere and
tall thin CAPE profiles. The upper trough gradually shifts east of
the region on Tuesday into Wednesday, but a deepening trough across
the Northern Plains late week looks to create additional chances of
storms Wednesday night into Thursday. It looks like the active
weather pattern continues...

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with some
scattered mid level clouds passing through. Light northwesterly
winds at the present moment should increase just a bit to
around 12 knots later this morning, with winds turning more
northerly and relaxing by this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BMW