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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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FXUS63 KEAX 142320
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
620 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple chances for strong/severe storms from Monday afternoon
into Tuesday. The best potential for severe weather is on Tuesday
from late morning into the evening hours.

- Cooler, more seasonal conditions return for later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Upper-level shortwave ridging is moving across the central and
southern Plains today. This is ahead of the closed upper low that is
over California and slowly spreading eastward. This upper low will
move north of the Four-Corners region by Monday afternoon. Upper-
level flow will increase out of the southwest as this low approaches
and that will strengthen the lee-side trough and eventually lead to
cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado. This process will lead to strong
moisture transport northward into the area. Deeper/richer moisture
was already well inland and building into eastern Oklahoma this
afternoon, as evidenced by the 60+ degree dewpoints already in that
region.  A weak boundary is draped from northeastern Missouri
southwestward into south-central Kansas. As southerly low-level flow
strengthens, this boundary will become a warm front and lift into
northwestern through east-central Missouri by Monday
afternoon/evening. This warm front may become the focus for the
first of several chances for strong/severe storms. A strong low-
level jet will develop Monday evening and interact with that warm
front. The LLJ will be strongest across Kansas and western Missouri
earlier in the evening. As a result, the most likely area of strong
to severe convection will be to our west, initially. Overnight, the
LLJ will strengthen eastward and that will help shift the
possibility of new development east along the front during the late
evening and overnight ours. It`s likely this round of storms would
be elevated with a potential for hail. Lapse rates aren`t as steep
as they may be further west so we`ll have less potential for large
hail with these storms. None-the-less, with strong shear, supercell
structures are likely and with that will come the threat of severe
hail. This first round of storms should lift northward with time.

A second potential round of strong to severe storms may move into
east-central KS and southeastern to west-central Missouri early-mid
Tuesday morning. This would be the upscale growth of storms that
originated to our southwest. Given the time of day, these storms
will likely be elevated as well with hail being the most likely
hazard. However, strong flow just above the surface will support the
potential severe wind gusts as this area lifts to the northeast. How
this second area evolves after sunrise remains highly uncertain. But
this will also greatly affect the potential for severe storms
Tuesday afternoon. There are a couple scenarios for how Tuesday`s
severe weather could unfold. First, morning storms quickly move
northeast and vacate the area, leaving a better chance for clearing
and airmass recovery with new storms developing within that
recovered airmass late morning into the afternoon hours. Several
solutions depict this scenario.  Second, the morning convection just
weakens or never really materializes and the remnant cloud cover
vacates and the area destabilizes with daytime heating and a new
round of storms develops in that recovered airmass, like scenario 1.
Three, the early Tuesday convection maintains itself and then
intensifies late in the morning to afternoon and becomes the
Tuesday`s main event. This looks very possible as model RH fields
never lose lower-level saturation but develop new convection as
strong forcing from the negatively tilted trough moves east into
eastern Nebraska/northeastern Kansas. All these scenarios will
depend on if the area is able to destabilize. The SREF shows a an
area of 50-70 probabilities for MLCAPE greater than 1000J/kg. With
strong shear in place, there is a very good chance there will be
enough instability for severe storms. And as a result, despite the
uncertainty in how things may evolve, we`re confident Tuesday will
have the best potential to produce severe weather in the forecast
area.

Cooler, more seasonal weather moves into the area later in the week.
There is another chance for precipitation Thursday into Friday. Quasi-
zonal flow develops across the eastern CONUS with a subtle mid-level
shortwave tracking out the of the Rockies. This leads to a surface
low developing in the High Plains and tracks east-southeast with
time as a cold front pushes southward, bringing us our next chance
for rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions expected through the overnight with light winds.
Monday morning, MVFR ceilings are expected to move into the
forecast area. There is some potential a few sites may briefly
dip toward IFR but confidence remains low. Improvement is
expected for the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...HB
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
