Text Products for AFD Issued by EWX

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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FXUS64 KEWX 191854
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
154 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Mainly zonal flow aloft over South Central Texas today with a
surface front draped from west to east across the CWA. This front is
expected to stall this evening and will aid in the shower and storm
chances tomorrow. Mainly dry conditions are expected through this
afternoon, although a stray shower or weak storm could be possible
in this regime. Cloud cover and north to east winds will keep
conditions noticeably cooler today than previous days with highs
mainly in the 70s to the north and 80s in the south. Better
precipitation chances are seen in the west later this evening as a
weak upper level disturbance may ignite some thunderstorms over
Mexico that move into areas along the Rio Grande. Low to moderate
CAPE but sufficient shear indicate a strong storm cannot be ruled
out as it moves over the river, although they would likely quickly
weaken as they continue east into the overnight hours.

Some additional disturbances bring chances for showers and isolated
thunderstorms Saturday morning, although the better forcing comes
later in the afternoon through Sunday morning. This is due to an
upper level shortwave that moves over the area as the quasi-
stationary front continues to linger across South Central Texas.
Moderate CAPE and bulk shear of around 40-45 knots will lead to a
low threat for isolated severe storms. Hail and damaging wind gusts
would be be the main concern with elevated storms and SPC has
continued a Level 1 of 5 Risk across much of South Central Texas for
this potential. With PWATs up to 200 percent of normal for mid-
April, thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain,
especially if training storms are seen. Thunderstorms may produce
isolated flooding across locations that see the heaviest totals
which are currently forecast over the northeastern portion of the
CWA. WPC continues the Level 1-2 risk for excessive rain across much
of the area for tomorrow into Sunday. Overall, rainfall amounts
range from around 0.5-2 inches. Drier conditions return from west to
east after midnight through Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Cool, dry, and breezy conditions can be expected during the day
Sunday as surface high pressure builds into the southern Plains,
finally pushing the lingering cold front out into the Gulf.

The remainder of the long term period looks to be quiet from a
weather standpoint as 500mb ridging builds into the region from the
west. This will also lead to a gradual warming trend through next
week. Towards the end of the work week, indications are that a
shortwave or two will move quickly from the Desert Southwest into
the Plains, but there is a good amount of model disagreement
regarding both timing and trajectories. Whether or not the
shortwave(s) move more into the central or southern Plains will be
the primary driver of precipitation chances late in the week. For
now, we will stick with the NBM which introduces low chances for
thunderstorms across northern portions of the CWA on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Scattered MVFR ceilings continue across the area with a noticeable
gap in cloud cover a bit north of a surface front which is draped
across the area. A period of VFR conditions may be seen at all sites
this afternoon, but low ceilings are expected to redevelop across
all of South Central Texas later this evening. A few showers and
thunderstorms may develop in Mexico and move east towards DRT around
03-07Z and a TEMPO group has been included for this possibility.
Ceilings will drop to IFR across most areas near sunrise and will
remain that way through the morning at I-35 sites. Still too early
to pin down timing for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon,
but did include a PROB30 for SAT/AUS after 21Z when storm
development is expected to increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  64  72  52 /   0  20  80  90
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  64  73  51 /   0  10  70  90
New Braunfels Muni Airport     80  65  75  53 /   0  10  70  90
Burnet Muni Airport            72  62  67  50 /   0  30  80  90
Del Rio Intl Airport           88  69  79  60 /  10  40  70  50
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  62  69  50 /   0  20  80  90
Hondo Muni Airport             84  65  79  53 /   0  20  70  80
San Marcos Muni Airport        78  64  74  52 /   0  10  70  90
La Grange - Fayette Regional   79  67  75  55 /  10  10  70  90
San Antonio Intl Airport       81  66  76  54 /   0  20  70  90
Stinson Muni Airport           82  67  78  56 /  10  20  70  80

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...Gale
Aviation...27
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
