355
FXUS64 KEWX 140549
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1249 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

The ongoing cluster of storms across the CWA, associated with a mid-
level shortwave, will continue to push east through the afternoon.
The current storm mode now favors more of a wind threat compared to
hail, though severe hail will still be possible, especially with the
more discrete updrafts. While more uncertain, there remains
potential for additional development along the surface
front/boundary currently extending from just south of Del Rio
northeastward through the northern Hill Country. This boundary is
unlikely to move much farther to the S/E this afternoon, but will
serve as a weak lifting mechanism. This is evident already between
Val Verde and Kerr County where there have been attempts at
convection on satellite imagery and radar. Where exactly any new
development forms later this afternoon and evening, if any, is the
the big question, though the HRRR seems to favor the Hill Country
into northern portions of the I-35 corridor. Working against this
however would be the widespread cloud cover in place and rain cooled
air. Regardless, if any storms do form, the severe threat will
remain with the CAPE and shear in place. As far as the plan for the
Severe Thunderstorm Watch, it can likely be dropped once the cluster
of storms pushes east as any additional activity should be isolated.
However, this is not set in stone and will continue to be re-
evaluated through the afternoon.

Otherwise, dry conditions are expected overnight and through the end
of the short term period. Some models are indicating potential for
patchy ground fog forming early tomorrow morning, which makes sense
given the rainfall today and light surface winds in place. Any
fog/low clouds should quickly burn off after sunrise, with mostly
sunny skies expected for the remainder of the day and temperatures
warming into the upper 80s to upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A west coast trough is still expected to arrive later in the work
week, though timing may be slightly delayed from forecasts issued
over the weekend. The best rain chances from this system are now
expected mainly on Thursday and possibly lingering through the day
on Friday. Due to the changes in model guidance and the the
potential for widespread rainfall across the southern Plains, the
extent of the severe weather threat remains unclear. However, given
the time of year, at least an isolated severe threat seems plausible
as we get closer in time in addition to the potential for locally
heavy rainfall.

We will then trend drier and warmer over the weekend and into the
beginning of next week with temperatures likely becoming several
degrees above normal. Just beyond the end of the long term,
deterministic guidance shows another trough moving into the Plains,
but with a more northerly trajectory compared to the system late
this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

This is a mostly VFR forecast for all terminals. Some MVFR visibility
will affect AUS and SSF during the early morning hours. Fog could
also develop at SAT, but chances seem too low at this time.
Otherwise, skies should be clear.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              92  66  91  71 /   0   0   0  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  90  64  90  69 /   0   0   0  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     92  64  92  71 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            88  66  90  70 /   0   0   0  20
Del Rio Intl Airport          100  72  98  77 /   0   0  10  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        88  65  89  68 /   0   0   0  20
Hondo Muni Airport             93  65  92  72 /   0   0   0  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        90  64  91  70 /   0   0   0  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   88  65  90  70 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       92  66  91  73 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           93  66  93  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Gale
Long-Term...Gale
Aviation...05