Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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955 FXUS64 KFWD 100030 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 730 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday/ Our initial convection developed across the Big Country before midday along an advancing cold front. The activity eventual split into two factions, one remaining with the surface front while the other skirted the Red River Valley along an aging elevated frontal slope. Their separation increased as outflow from the north kept the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex largely free of storms. The main frontal surge through Central Texas will be the primary focus for strong/severe storms this evening. However, the intensity of the earlier Red River activity has been unable to preclude renewed development as sunset approaches. The Central Texas storms within the newest Severe Thunderstorm Watch will have better access to the most unstable parcels, and these storms will have the greater potential for large hail and damaging winds. But hail cores will still be possible with the elevated cells further north into East and Northeast Texas where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will continue past nightfall. Deeper northerly flow later this evening should spell an end to the Red River activity, and the Central Texas storms will exit with the advancing frontal boundary. The early morning hours will be rain-free with noticeably cooler and drier air filtering into the region. A much more pleasant day will follow on Friday with below normal temperatures. 25 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 207 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024/ Update: Not much has changed in regards to the extended portion of the forecast. Pleasant weather is expected to start the weekend with afternoon highs primarily in the mid to upper 70s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin across our west and southwest Saturday evening/night increasing in coverage and spreading east during the day Sunday and into Sunday night. The severe potential is low on Sunday, but a few storms could produce some small hail. Thunderstorm chances will continue into Monday primarily along/east of I-35, exiting to the east by Monday night. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be possible in the Sunday-Monday timeframe, especially across our already water- logged areas in Central Texas and the Brazos Valley where there is a 30-40% chance that rainfall totals exceed 2 inches during this timeframe. We will likely see a break in the rain chances Tuesday- Tuesday night before storm chances, potentially severe, return in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. See the discussion below for more details. Langfeld Previous Discussion: /Friday Night Onward/ North winds will drop to 5 to 10 MPH and veer to the northeast Friday night as a surface ridge moves southeast through the Red River Valley. The cooler and drier continental airmass (behind the cold front currently moving slowly through the region) will create low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s along the Red River to the lower 60s across Central Texas. The surface ridge axis will be practically on top of North and Central Texas on Saturday while weak ridging is simultaneously in place aloft. The result will be a nice Saturday with light winds and highs generally in the 75 to 80 degree range. The only minor damper will be thickening mid and high clouds and a slight chance of showers across the far west associated with an upper low situated over the southern Rockies. Clouds and rain chances will continue to increase Saturday night as the upstream low advances east. Showers and thunderstorms will initially be confined to the west and southwest counties, but will spread east/northeast across the rest of the region on Sunday as the upper low draws near. With the surface front becoming stationary along the Gulf Coast, convection will be elevated in nature, which should mitigate the overall severe weather threat. However, elevated instability may be sufficient at times to support quarter sized hail in a few storms Sunday and Sunday night. Locally heavy rain may also produce flooding in some areas. Rain chances will continue mainly along and east of I-35 on Monday as the upper low moves east through the Southern Plains. Precipitation will end from west to east Monday night as the low exits to the east and subsidence develops in its wake. Dry conditions are then expected Tuesday through Tuesday night, followed by additional chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday as the next upper trough approaches. The surface front will have lifted north by then, immersing all of the forecast area back within the warm sector. The dryline may also come into play, making Wednesday of next week look like our next (after today) significant opportunity severe weather. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR for the Metroplex. Convection and MVFR ceilings for Waco. Metroplex terminals should remain VFR with ongoing convection to both the north and south. In addition to the north and south departure corridors, the Cedar Creek arrival gate may have some disruptions this evening. The most intense convection has passed southeast of the Waco terminal. VFR will return by nightfall, but MVFR ceilings will arrive during the predawn hours. A deepening postfrontal layer will push the deck south of Waco by mid-morning. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 81 62 78 62 / 20 0 0 5 30 Waco 63 79 62 76 63 / 50 10 5 10 30 Paris 62 79 56 80 60 / 20 0 0 0 10 Denton 59 79 58 78 60 / 20 0 0 5 30 McKinney 61 80 58 78 60 / 20 0 0 0 20 Dallas 62 81 62 79 63 / 20 0 0 5 20 Terrell 61 80 59 78 61 / 30 0 0 0 20 Corsicana 64 83 62 78 64 / 50 0 5 5 20 Temple 63 79 62 77 62 / 50 10 5 10 30 Mineral Wells 59 79 59 75 59 / 10 5 5 10 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$